How To Diversify Portfolio to Oil Gas Gold Rubber Palm Commodities

Very often, the term diversifying your portfolio crops up whenever things aren't doing so well and especially when there is uncertainty if good times are sustainable. Not putting all your eggs in one basket is a adage so common even an egg seller can start claiming he invented McEgg to diversify his poultry farm business.

So we have our stocks. Blue chips. And trendy tech stocks. And possibly 1-2 properties. Then next the metals are getting a nice warm heat these days - gold and silver. The not so distant past 2008, oil prices were hovering above $150 USD. Today when oil prices are about to break $100 to $110 USD, airlines are scrambling their F5 (refresh button not the fighter jet!) to start imposing fuel surcharges which distorts the customers final price tally - where is the nett price battle cry.

So nett is never final until all these ancillary cost, surcharges, fees, taxes are fully factored in - totally an enormous 30-60% more than the quoted rack price of an air ticket.

While those bankers and financial vampires are celebrating their (again) new found wealth, supersize fat bonus and stock options, because sales exceeded last 2 year's deals (2008-2009 were the Global Financial Crisis years remember?), we are left wondering - why are we left behind? Why can't we have bought oil when it was $50 USD during the crash? Won't we have made 100-200% supernormal profits?

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Richard Branson joins AirAsia X on 1st May 2011

In a classic racing challenge, where Virgin Racing Team had lost to Lotus Racing Team of AirAsia, Richard Branson will join AirAsia X on 1st May 2011 to serve as a flight attendant designated as a "stewardess" inferring that he would be made to wear the female flight attendant's costume.

The flight is on AirAsia X - the long-haul service. So which flight destination could it be? How would you react to see Branson serving you on a long-haul flight? Would you be too sleepy to have a chat, or so eager to meet the man/woman in person and have an autograph signed, or perhaps an autograph on his book.

    

The books above are trademark Branson. A powerful branding personality. Even his book title hints of eye-catching and mind-catching marketing mentality.

Losing My Virginity: How I've Survived, Had Fun, and Made a Fortune Doing Business My Way
Book Review
The book was, to my delight, a very interesting read. "Losing My Virginty" reads like a novel and I would say that it was as interesting as both "Memoirs or a Geisha" and the "Harry Potter" series. Yet the book was full of lessons in a variety of business fields; entrepreneurship and risk-taking being at the forefront of those fields. In its value as a business book, I would compare it to "Lessons from the Top" and "The Millionnaire Next Door", both of which were a much less gripping read. However, "Losing my Virginity" is different from those two books in that it is primarily about "World Class Entrepreneurship".
Branson takes the reader on a trip back to the 60's and 70's when Virgin took off and gradually leads you into the "jetstream" of his turbulant life. You will enjoy the ride.

This is definitely a book that I thoroughly enjoyed and earnestly recommend to anyone, not necessarily to businessmen, just to anyone who wants to make the most of his/her life.

Richard Branson used the book well on many occasions to tell his side of the story and to clarify to the public certain events that may have not been fully disclosed in that way during the time of their occurance.

He also talks freely about matters, which a conventionial bussinessman would find out of place, beyong the point or even downright embarrassing. Those "personal" moments are actually the essence of what this book is all about. The book is about Branson's life and Virgin Group is just that, a very large chunk of Branson's life.


“Richard is good-looking and very smart, which is sexy to start with. He also makes a billion dollars before breakfast—and still knows how to have fun."
-- Ivana Trump
“Few people in contemporary business are as colorful, shrewd, and irreverent, and probably no one’s nearly as much fun to be around. . . . Branson embodies America’s cherished mythology of the iconoclastic, swashbuckling entrepreneur."
-- GQ
“Branson wears his fame and money exceedingly well: no necktie, no chauffeur, no snooty clubs. . . . What continues to set Branson apart is the unique -- and, to some, baffling -- nature of his ambition. . . . He isn’t interested in power in the usual sense of influencing other people. . . . Boiled down to its singular essence, Richard Branson just wants to have fun.”
-- Newsweek
“Branson, a self-described ‘adventure capitalist,’ is a business-creation engine who was clearly born in the wrong place. . . . Those business instincts are matched by an ability to motivate people who work for him. And who wouldn’t want to -- Branson seems hell-bent on making sure that everybody, but everybody, is having as much fun as he is.”
-- Time
“Richard Branson . . . is dressed to the nines: in a $10,000 white silk bridal gown with a traditional veil and train and acres of lace. . . . Branson is expected to do the unexpected, even the bizarre -- anything to publicize his latest venture. . . . The fact is, Branson’s widely reported stunts seem almost staid compared to the unconventional way he manages his burgeoning empire.”
-- Forbes ASAP


Screw It, Let's Do It: Lessons in Life and Business 
Book Review: The global icon shares his secrets of success and exciting plans for the future.

Throughout my life I have achieved many remarkable things. In Screw It, Let's Do It, I will share with you my ideas and the secrets of my success, but not simply because I hope they'll help you achieve your individual goals.

Today we are increasingly aware of the effects of our actions on the environment, and I strongly believe that we each have a responsibility, as individuals and organisations, to do no harm. I will draw on Gaia Capitalism to explain why we need to take stock of how we may be damaging the environment, and why it is up to big companies like Virgin to lead the way in a more holistic approach to business.

In Screw It, Let's Do It I'll be looking forwards to the future. A lot has changed since I founded Virgin in 1968, and I'll explain how I intend to take my business and my ideas to the next level and the new and exciting areas - such as launching Virgin Fuels - into which Virgin is currently moving.

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OSK positive with AirAsia and Expedia collaboration

OSK Research is fairly optimistic on AirAsia Bhd's new joint venture (JV) with Expedia, the world' largest online travel agency, as the companies leverage on each other's strengths to create synergy.

In a note today, OSK Research said the JV would give AirAsia a bigger distribution channel to market its route offering and its holiday packages in an attempt to boost ancillary income moving forward.

"This JV will boost AirAsia's ancillary income and improved margins over the longer term," it said. OSK Research has maintained its 'buy' recommendation on AirAsia at an unchanged target price of RM3.42.

"Although there is a lot of room for growth for the JV, we still think it is too early to make any upward revisions in our forecast as we have inputted a fairly reasonable ancillary income growth assumption going forward," it said.

Electronic Business Future Megatrends 2011

In January 2006, while on a FINNAIR flight from Bangkok to Hong Kong, one article in their inflight magazine - Blue Wings - took my attention completely.

  
It was talking about megatrends. Finnish Futurologist Mika Mannermaa (http://fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mika_Mannermaa) was summing up 10 megatrends that will happen in the near future. So five years on, or half a decade's time, here is the list of what he researched on and came up with:
1) The struggle between various ideological social and cultural models for global influence. The American neo-liberal market economy, the European model and Asian model of the China-Singapore-Korea-Japan axle will compete among themselves for global influence in the world economy.

2) The technological development of the information society will rise to a new level where the focus is on consumers' needs, services and content.

3) The Woody Allen society. In the 24/7 future, the social concept of time will change. Our usage of time will be more independent. The pace of our lives will be dictated less by external requirements and restrictions.

4) Suburbanisation. Soon we will all live in the urban areas, centres or their immediate vicinity. Sparsely populated areas will be vacated.

5) Senior citizens will rule. The baby boomers will become significant consumers. They will behave in unexpected ways, for instance, setting up new companies at the age of 65.

6) The John Wayne society. More people will operate as wandering professionals of the information society, working alone or as a company with a few partners rather than seeking work for large hierarchical organisations.

7) From majorities to minorities. Majorities will disappear. We will shift to an era of small heterogenic tribes and virtual networks. (Facebook!)

8) The complex risk society. The information society will become more complicated, including all of the material risks of the industrial society but also a growing set of immaterial risks. An electrical blackout or the collapse of an information system may paralyse all of the central activities of a society.

9) Globalisation includes various phenomena and uncertainty factors that occur at different rates. The vulnerability of the world economy, cultural conflicts, environmental and development problems of developing a worldwide democratic global administration, which has so far only been realised in some countries. There will be a lack of universal rules of the game.

10) The importance of information and communications technology in society will grow. The rising new technologies will be biotechnology, material technology, and nanotechnology.

So far, what is your mind telling you from the current world affairs, events and economic situations?

Chinese Finance Fengshui 6 Mar - 4 Apr Wood Rabbit

Not exactly a turn up for the books, but at least that strong southerly should have blown itself out. Not quite a turnaround, but we’ll be heading east at least, now that the Rabbit has found its feet (albeit not yet its lucky one). Although the over-all direction is horizontal, expect plenty of bunny-money bounce on the bourse.


Beware those slides of March especially, and watch your sox at the equinox. The month is amok with doubles both good and bad: wealth in the northwest; celebration in the west; robbery in the north; plus a ‘cross-swords’ killer combination in the centre that could lay you low with the ‘dreaded lurgi’. Not unlike healthcare reform, this month repays patience, particularly as it peters out.

Overall: Good
Carrot days: 9, 18, 29 Mar, 2 Apr
Sticky days: 8, 15, 21, 23 Mar, 1 Apr

China tweaking 5 year plan in opposite direction

Recently China has declared a change in their financial planning for the next 5 years. As I wrote previously speculating or postulating this shift, the results will be progressive and finally will see a "be careful of what you wished for" scenario - especially for USA.

Instead of focusing GDP growth, this strategy and policy will go the opposite. Through the years since the invention and reliance on the "GDP factor" as an economic health indicator, countries around the world blindly followed this capitalist propaganda. Because the proof was sort of in the pudding. It is true, GDP growth means a better consumption rate, better disposable income, better life, more products, bigger homes, car ownership, expansion of the urban sprawl, creating of suburbs (because we can afford to drive an hour to work), better gadgets, improvement in IT products because of demand and thus competition. So on and so forth. And obesity!

So grab that last sentence: obesity. GDP growth if applied to a human body would be like this following short story.
A baby is born needs alot of nutrients, mother's milk, love, care, food, to grow. The cells will multiply. The baby's weight has a superb "GDP growth". Good because that is what a human baby needs. Growth. Then teenage more different types of growth - hormonal, physiological, psychological, mental. Language skills. But the body now grows in different manners. More muscles, more shape. Some acne. Bone growth slows but still growing. So during the 20s, the body literally doesn't grow anymore. If it did, imagine a humongous monster, devouring anything in sight!

Apply this to basic economics whether the experts agree or not. Growing just by GDP is a fallacy. You can grow in other ways. Manage the growth. Grow mentally. Grow the education and healthcare. Grow the mindset - self-sufficiency. Instead of unlimited multi-storey villas and five swimming pools. Do you ever swim like 12 hours a day, every day? And what is with the golf course. This resource intensive "sport" is a very big sin. Water is consumed in the value of 5 elephants per day. Plus maintaining the "green grass". Why not maintain green vegetables? And water for plants and animals? The space itself for a golf course, could have been a nice shady tree-filled park.

Many times I meet people from the First World Countries - and they have nice things to say about Asia. Then one or two times, they will say this. I find it strange Asian always thinking about "saving face". Well saving face is not a concept created in Asia. It was created in the West! Have you noticed that it is quite strangely white those people on TV (politicians, actors, etc) have - for their teeth?!! And bronze lobster-red body with a high potential of the big C - cancer - imprinted? And what about coats and ties, plus unbelievable prices for a dinner and alcohol?

USA is wishing and pressuring China to increase the value of the yuan. Reduce their exports and start importing. Reduce their GDP. So China has been thinking (and perhaps reading my blog and articles through the years) - yes, let us give them what they requested.

So the scenario will surely be good for USA. Or not?
These scenario will eventually happen:
1) The yuan (oh, and if you cannot pronounce it correctly, it is not "you-wan", it is yuan) will increase in value. Those who hold the yuan or earning yuan, will have a better and higher disposable income. Meaning more chance to buy products from another country, or more expensive, higher quality (maybe) products.
2) Treasury Bills will be slowly discarded and buyers will be few. Meaning a direct reduction in the demand for US Dollars. US policies that rely on these loans will be diminished. Meaning US influence and stranglehold (hegemony) will disappear throughout the globe. Military bases will have to be closed because of insufficient funding.
3) As opposed to completely-free democracy, whereby land/property is openly offered, and thus creating property boom and bubbles, such as in USA, UK, possibly Thailand and so on and so forth, China doesn't have such as system. Perhaps they will extend a hand to "overseas Chinese" - those with Middle Kingdom heritage can now purchase property in the motherland. So whatever happens, it will have a loyalty effect. Property will keep growing, wealth flowing into China. Chances are overseas Chinese from Singapore, Canada, French Reunion Island, Indonesia, Malaysia, Antigua - everywhere - could have a shot at buying and owning a property in China.
4) US Dollar would have dropped (gradually) 10%, maybe 40%. Low enough for middle and higher income investors from China to buy out corporations in USA. Or via Mergers and Acquisitions. Not that the anti-trust law will be rearing the protective nationalistic front. So perhaps not. China will instead invest in itself, and other commodity filled countries. Thereby reducing not just indirect investments in USA (T-Bills) and now direct investments - from stocks, corporations and even education.
5) It is possible to employ a maid from the USA for about 2% of your salary - in the year 2020.

Facesoft and Microbook new tech megatrends of the decade

The cameo appearance by Bill Gates (or a lookalike and soundalike) in the Social Network, vaguely "passing the torch of IT leadership" to hitherto unknown new-age nerdtrepeneur (I invented this word then, cos it's still swiggle-red-underline status) Facebook boy - Mark Zukerberg - may seem like a funny episode in the movie. But the truth is, it is all too real at today's face value of the whiz kid's creation.

Tech visionary 2005 - beyond

Tech visionary 1985 - 2005

  
Several years ago, I recall reading an article from a popular technology and business magazine. Mark Zuckerberg had just started the pace in Facebook. The article was about him, his sandals, his office with a Swiss ball as a chair used by one of the staff, fun, and why he is not selling his company.

The deep believe in what his creation is NOT going to be, made him held on to it. Investors and take-over professionals came a-calling - trying to "teach him business" - just cash it out - kid. Then let us run it like a business. Get this 10 million dollars a live like a prince. No. Thank you. I already have a vision and dream of what my creation is going to be. Or maybe not, but definitely not to cash out now for bribery money.

Well have you applied this thought to your stock market investments? No? Why? Because you thought of cutting losses? Satisfied with your margin gained? Weren't you not looking at the bigger picture when you first decided to invest in a company?

The determination to hold on and wait out is not based on mere market trends. It has to be a huge big believe inside. Faith in your choice of stocks. Pick and hold.

The next Facesoft and Microbook could well be created by you. Someone who sees a need, has a bit of a skill in both the techie side, marketing side and also the faith in not surrendering.

Here is some fiction I thought of today for tomorrow:
Facesoft - in the year 2015, where a mobile device called Mod (My Online Data) will connect you to the world via a software called Facesoft. This software that recognise your unique facial characters (including new acne and wrinkles projection so definitely no one can impersonate you) connects to your bank account, driver's license, money, ATM, your vehicle, your home security system, your salary, your investments, your health profile including blood group and donor status, and your Social Network system. Email does not exist simply because it has become obsolete. Mod devices firstly was a big hit as the usual fanciful technology device. Then being adopted by two thirds of the governments of the world - because of various positive reasons including security, uniformity, health care, immigration, and overall movement to be a single One World One Country. Facesoft founders donated 95% of the value and stock options of the company towards this global implementation project linking all the secure and verified data across the globe and to make it free for those in the poorest leftover countries who were unable to pledge to join via a commercial sense.

Microbook - this super all-in-one device was thought of from the marriage of a dozen devices through the past decade. To reduce the consumption of paper and timber, again two thirds of the modern world had agreed to make it compulsory to use this device for daily writing, communication and publishing - after the extremely commercial and green-tagged success of Microbook in 2011. Economist and analyst came up with so much research on the positive benefits and cost efficiency of Microbook that has even made it a so-called saviour in the battle against consumption and the global warming dilemma. Paper pulp and timber consumption reduced 85% across the globe. Reduction is colouring chemicals (used in publishing) and various dozen chemicals used in the process of creating a book, or newspaper and magazine reduced tremendously. A noted effect - thousands of report of positive air, water and improvements in the habitats of fauna. Reduction in these chemicals which are petrol based, reduced petroleum demand by 30%.

A Microbook also does several dozen functions - taking high definition photos and videos. GPS mapping. Almost unbreakable and waterproof. It is taken everywhere. Due to the high level of security built-in and also in cooperation with Facesoft, this device is virtually a deterrent to petty crimes. The sensors on a Microbook can record and understand if the owner is having a distress signal or situation. Sending data back to the central Facesoft servers.

Going to school is so much more compact and lightweight. The Microbook stores unlimited data via CoolCloud. Children from poorer countries now have 24 hours access to the cloud. Their language skills have recorded improvements of over 40%.

Many places such as workplace, pubs, all require a customer or client to have a Mod device to enter. In 2016, all border crossings and airports would have seemless use of a Mod scanner - thereby making the ownership of a passport obsolete.

Used together, the Mod and Microbook shares and synchronise data seamlessly.

(more coming)

Health is still the best wealth - accumulate now

Dear Readers and Investors,
Many of those who have read and thanked my articles even since the days of the SingaporeStocks Forum (now defunct because they changed it and most free contributors left) have bluntly one goal. Making more money. Creating wealth. Fine. That's absolutely fine. Just be thankful when you do, and happy with my sharing and whenever someone is gaining from it, since sharing my research is not a zero-sum-game against me!

Now, we know, or thought we know, the most important wealth is simply health. Good health. Physically fine to function. To enjoy life, we hope to have good health so we can literally go outside. Go visit the Balinese sea temples of Pura Rambut Siwi or Ulu Watu. Go out to have a nice spicy tom yaam guung Thai dinner. Go for some trekking and photography. Enjoy some watersports. Enjoy playing in the waves by the white sand beaches.

So a new year again? I have stopped counting years and anniversaries to a certain level. While still, the buzz of the new year, new Lunar Year, new growth targets - everything is new going in the same upbeat way - one have to ask, how about a new body? When are we servicing our bodies? If you own a car or motorised vehicle, there is requirement to perform service checks periodically. Oil change. Tyre pressure check.

Now our bodies are supposed to have that too. Yes - perhaps I did - we went for this super mega huge Japanese buffet for New Year! Is that correct? We went to for 4 hours of Thai massage marathon last weekend. Is this the oil check we talk about? Years ago, I would have thought so. A big special (usually expensive) meal. Spa or massage. Relax under the sun by some swimming pool. That will "re-charge" my body. Making it supremely new and happy with my mind again. It didn't worked.

And even if we thought it did, most likely the activity might have caused more serious damage. Super buffet stuffed with a double dose of more calories and carbohydrates. That is not helping even though the dopamine short term effect seems like a nice reward.

So however we see it, we already know that we need to fix, service, improve, maintain our physical body. Invest in it more than you invest in your stocks. Joining a gym perhaps was Step 1, five years ago for your new year's resolution. Then up the ante. Think of participating in the Body Pump class. I did that. It was great. And now I have more goals in my physical quest to stay fit.

Have always thought of doing a hike to a nearby hill or mountain? Forget Everest. Just think local. Think within your country or within Asia. Mount Bromo? Gunung Kinabalu? Rice terraces in the Phillipines? Plan it, and go for it. But soon after the trek, don't overindulge in a big reward meal. Think of the reward as you've done that seemingly arduous task of doing the trek up the mountain.

When I was young, I had to cycle to school. Bicycle was a means of transportation that is part of the daily life. This basic exercise was built-in to the daily routine. So perhaps try to revisit your old exercise routine that you have overlooked. Perhaps you walked to school. Perhaps you climb up 5 flight of stairs during your month-long holiday with your grandmother. It was fun. So try to put that back into your life again.

Buy a bicycle! And buy a good lock too.

I met this guy from NZ who said proudly while looking at his "walking counter device" or phone: "We have to walk ten thousand steps per day to stay in a healthy and active lifestyle".
"And now I have just made 10000 steps. Bye see you tomorrow." He said happily.

I certainly thought in a funny way perhaps he was having ADHD, OCD, or some form of a health freak.
Then putting that aside, to make a better conclusion is that having a goal will push us to complete a task we wanted to achieve. And can rephrase to: creating a basic routine will bring us to the goal we wanted to achieve.

Essentially it's not about the grammar or being motivated by the carrot nor stick. Both are fine. We want our goals to be achieved. So buying that odometer or application on his phone to count his walking steps per day, actually helped him achieved his goal(s).

I've signed up for a 5 year gym membership (2008!). Now I've just dedicated my mind to focus on Body Pump Classes. At least 3 times a week. Plus trying to increase the difficulty. Also will try to join the Cycling/Spinning Class this week. What are your steps?

Accumulate Golden Agri palm oil demand skyrocketing

Recent political scenario across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region seems to suggest the winds of change, the velvet revolution is beginning to commence there - whether at a gradual pace or a huge fast pattern. Commerce has stopped. Trucks stopped. And food supply stopped.

The demand outstrips supply. The demand for palm oil in these region will push a commodity rush.

At the other end of the world, huge, gradual increase in consumption and demand in India and China is not relenting. Demand outstrips supply again.

Now supply side economics. There is a downfall! Palm oil production from FFB has been going down the past quarters - flooding, rain, volcano - at the top producing nations - Indonesia and Malaysia - has reduced supply tremendously.

With a special tax by the governments of these countries, there is no doubt the cost and thus the final price of palm oil will gain handsomely. Prices are expected to reach 4000 RM this year.

Accumulate on Golden Agri, the second largest palm oil producer in Indonesia. Current prices still hovering at 70 cents (SGD) are so attractive you cannot miss it.

Peter Lim A Wilmar and Golden Agri story

Most of you would have known this story - Peter Lim made his fortune investing in Wilmar many many years ago. Back then he invested when the company was at a low price, then now the price is over the moon. One factor was palm oil demand and prices went up through the years.

Wilmar along with Golden Agri, are listed in Singapore. While all their palm oil producing plantations are located in Indonesia. They are both the largest and second largest palm oil producers.

So now, if we are presented the scenario that Peter Lim had many years ago, when Wilmar was affordable. What would you do? With the knowledge that palm oil is heading upwards. And there is this second largest palm oil company being offered at a reasonably low price?

When I first invested in AirAsia, the similar situation hit. This airline is smashing records, over 75 destinations with over 183 routes, all over Asean and China and India, Australia. Recently it had gone from average of 1.50 RM, to over 2.50 RM in 4 months.

So I wonder if the day comes when Golden Agri had moved from 60 cents, to $1.00, to $5.00. What is the target price of Golden Agri? What was the target price of Wilmar? And that "was" was some time ago.

Similarly, what was the target price of Genting Singapore? Remember some powerful research house, or investment group were giving Genting Singapore $1.20 target price. 90 cents target price because of a Rights Issue. $1.25 target price and fear of estimating the gains. Fast forward to today, apparently the target priced has been revised upwards, conveniently.

My wish was to find such a Wilmar. And I had found it several times and several times too were swayed by wrong information, too much information, lack of confidence and believe in myself. So if you have found yours, believe in yourself and hopefully one day, you will know how Mr Peter Lim felt.

"When you first look at kungfu, it appears to be so easy.
When you are training in kungfu, it is very difficult.
When you have mastered kungfu, it appears to be so easy."

This was the legendary kungfu exponent Bruce Lee's philosophy about mastery. Which level of investment mastery are you at?

Unit Trusts Shenton Asia Pacific, Global Opportunities, Eight Portfolio ALL SOLD

There have been times we were approach in the banks, in magazines, TV ads about buying Unit Trusts and Dollar Cost Average. And the other acronym RSP. Regular Savings Plan meaning putting aside monthly a fixed amount say $100 into the Unit Trusts. This is the methodology of unit trust investment. Some professional will manage a basket of stock portfolio(s) on your behalf for a fee.

Today, I finally sold my remaining holdings in Shenton Asia Pacific Trust, Shenton Global Opportunities Fund and Ei8ht Portfolio by DBS Asset Management. Previously I had sold all units of my Citibank UOB United Telecom Trust.

The conventional question would be why you divested all your unit trust funds? Is it against basic diversification principles? Yes perhaps it does. Diversification is a form of average risk(s) into different sectors, segment, and types of investments. Cash, stocks, bonds, unit trusts, property. And within each segment a few other diversification e.g. Singapore Stocks, Malaysian Stocks. Residential property, commercial lot. So on and so forth.

Going back, let us think about the significance of having an investment in unit trusts. The goal is there are some professionals helping to manage and diversify your portfolio. You sum of $10 000, will be diversify to include Singtel (telco), Ezra (shipping), SIA (transport) and a dozen other stocks. Which you are unable to perform with just $10 000 by yourself. Perhaps you could buy 3 lots of Singtel shares.

Now, we are supposed to be self discipline investors. Seeking out to look for risks that will give a delightful return. Some of you had attended seminars. Many bought books, or read up from the internet. Blogs, magazines, Forbes Magazine, Bloomberg. We look at reports. Brokerage house recommendations. The Edge Magazines. We try to be more knowledgeable about Technical Analysis. Fundamental Analysis. Price Earning Ratio. We can think of dividend yields and compare that with Fixed Deposit Dividends. And we feel wiser when we can set aside that $10 000 into say Suntec REIT, and get a 7% return, rather than letting it stay in Fixed Deposits. We feel an accomplishment. We studied!

Therefore, the question is then isn't it obvious we are actually taking back that people power into our own hands. We are managing, diversifying, investing from our own analysis and own effort? We have a fuller control and we feel satisfied. That is how I feel. Ever felt very upset when the Unit Trust we bought did not perform?

Finally, I am saying all my good-byes to unit trusts. Perhaps a milestone of graduating from seeking experts to manage the investment options (and paying them a fee), now I am doing it from my own effort, my own knowledge and experience. The monetary rewards are more fulfilling simply because I did it my way. Comments, suggestions, welcome.

Straits Times Index Historical Chart from 1988 to 2010

There is this song we all know. "How low can you go?" Jack be nimble Jack be quick, Jack go under the limbo stick. Today, we ask "how high can you go?" That question is in everyone's mind these days.

So I had a thought and actually was asking this question: how high or low has the STI been doing the past year, the past decade? That question came out to play in my thesis in 1994 - Economics Independent Study: The Superbull Run in the Malaysian Stock Market.

From this historical chart, 1988 to 2010 - 20 over years of data you can see clearly the bigger picture.
Look and observe these trends and then re-analyse your stocks:
1988 to 1990, a nice steep increase (remember 1987 there was a big dip? It was the so-called the Black Monday)
1991 a dip.
1992 to 1993 went back to that plateau.
1994 a big climb.
1995 to 1997 plateau.
1998 a big crash.
1999 to 2000 a big return back to that plateau! (does this mirror today?)
2001 to 2002 a decline and big dip that went back up.
2003 going back to that dip.
2004 to 2006 consistent climbing.
2007 to 2008 steep climb.




It seems clear whichever "big crash", big stock market dip, big recession, 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2001 Dot Com Bust Up, 2008 USA Crisis, the market went back up to that previous level within 1 or 2 years. Obviously some stocks tanked out (the firm closed down!) While looking at the big picture, things became rosy in a relatively short time. Like a little oscillation. So during times of imminent trouble, it is not all doom and gloom. If you played your cards well, and hold your dependable cards well, you will eventually win out. Not wiped out.