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Sunday, October 31, 2010

Why AirAsia is unbeatable among budget airlines

In terms of hurdles, AirAsia has battled government protectionism and political efficiency better than David and Goliath, for the umpteenth time. Using old Subang Airport. Not allowed. New routes such as Sydney. Not allowed. Forced to use higher fee airport. Delays in LCCT. Singapore - KL route protectionist policy. Lucrative Japan and Korea routes - many many hurdles. Even battling oil prices on their own. SARS. Earthquakes and tsunami crisis in Indonesia. Political crises in Thailand.

Today, AirAsia's investors could be really proud. If you hold it that long. I held my shares over 3 years seeing it go from $1.70 down to $1.00 to 90 sen, then up, then down. And finally the last 3 - 4 months, a glorious rally back and over the top of $2.00 to a high of over $2.60. AND beating MAS (Malaysia Airlines) price as well to boot. I could see some parallel to Genting Singapore. Being beaten down to below 90 cents, then now riding over $2.00.

Are there budget airlines to challenge this supremacy? No. Tiger Airlines is plagued with bad service reputation on Australia and now in home turf Singapore as well. JetStar perhaps is powerful from Australia standpoint. It can never grow much further in Asia, where the numbers are. I actually enjoyed flying Jetstar and Virgin Blue in Australia. So I wish them the best too and hope they will operate in years to come. Imagine I had flights from Melbourne to Sydney for $50 AUD. The bus or train cost more plus travel time.

There is a relatively unknown player called Cebu Air. It is supposed to be the second largest budget carrier in Asia.

AirAsia has made very strong roots and foothold in essential markets across the continent. The biggest country in Asean - yes over 10 cities in Indonesia is connected. Big populous country in the world - China and India. The traditional trade partners of a land before airplanes circa the 15th century. Meeting in the middle port of Malacca. And today, the ancient trade routes is meeting centrally again, in KLIA (Kuala Lumpur International Airport) - or more aptly LCCT (Low Cost Carrier Terminal) Malaysia.

And remarkably, the host which is MAHB (Malaysia Airports Holding Berhad) wasn't so thankful to AirAsia for years. Even now. What an irony. Because if AirAsia, the historical price of MAHB had increased from $2.00 to over $4.00 doubling up in 2 years. Just like the middle-man report I wrote on SGX or in general the stock exchange firm, the middle man which is the airport will always gain when there are passengers coming in. When AirAsia introduces more and more flights. From more and more diverse Asian countries.

Practically the whole of ASEAN is connected now because of AirAsia. What a feat.

And looking at China and India - the limitless flow of passengers is a given now.

Rich Asian nations - Korea and Japan, Taiwan and Singapore all connected.

Powerful mining and closest Western First World Country - Australia with 3 destinations. What if Sydney is added? And northern small sized airports in Cairns and Darwin are added? Beautiful. Unbeatable.

Far reaching to smaller airports and boutique destinations, such as Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan.

The whole of Asia soon will have a little red dot connected. And this red dot is not Singapore. But AirAsia.

Friday, October 29, 2010

Australian Stocks Listed in SGX

Seeing the ASX-SGX merger being the talk of the two cities, here are some interesting facts. Currently, there are only 7 Australian companies listed in SGX:



1) AUSTRALAND PROPERTY GROUP
- Australand is one of Australia’s major diversified property groups, with activities across Australia covering development of residential land, housing and apartments, development of and investment in income producing commercial and industrial properties, and property management.
Australand was listed on Australian and Singapore Stock Exchanges in June 1997 and was formed into a stapled group in November 2003 with the stapling of units in Australand Property Trust to the ordinary shares in Australand Holdings Limited. In October 2005, Australand Property Trust No.4 and Australand Property Trust No.5 were merged with Australand. As a result of this merger, Australand has four listed entities (namely Australand Holdings Limited, Australand Property Trust, Australand Property Trust No.4 and Australand Property Trust No.5) whose securities are stapled together and trade on the Australian Stock Exchange and Singapore Stock Exchange as the one stapled security.

Australand has been involved in property development for approximately 80 years and Australand has progressively widened the scope of its activities to satisfy the needs of an ever changing and more sophisticated client base.

Australand has three operating divisions being Residential, Commercial and Industrial and Investment Property. It employs approximately 640 people with operations in Sydney, Melbourne, South East Queensland and Perth and a sales office in Hong Kong servicing the Asian market. Australand now has development assets of $1.7 billion and owns 49 income producing properties with an aggregate value of approximately $1.3 billion.

As at February 2006, Australand has approximately 12,700 security holders and a market capitalisation of approximately $1.8 billion. Its major security holder is the Singapore based property group, CapitaLand Limited, which owns approximately 53 percent of the issued capital.

2) AUTRON CORPORATION LIMITED

The Company is a listed public company limited by shares, which was incorporated under the Corporations Law of the Commonwealth of Australia on 10 January 1985 as Pacific Communications Holdings Limited. On 11 June 1998, the Company changed its name to Australasian Technology Corporation Limited and to its present name on 5 July 2000. The Company’s shares were listed on the ASX on 30 January 1986 and subsequently dual listed and traded on the SGX-ST on 3 May 2001.

The principal activities of the consolidated entity are as follows:-
- Assembly and manufacturing of printed circuit boards and electronics accessories;
- Design and manufacturing of industrial machinery and robotic and automated systems; and
- Investment in the potential of good commercially viable assets.


3) AVJENNINGS LIMITED
-In 1995, the Long Homes Ltd acquired AVJennings Hldgs Ltd and changed to its present name. It is a low-rise residential developer targeting second and subsequent home purchasers. The company is listed on the Melbourne and Singapore stock exchanges.

4) GLOBAL MASTERS FUND
-EBB-AFG Global Masters Fund is an Australian domiciled unit Trust. Its issued by EBB-AFG Capital Management Limited, a company registered in Hong Kong on 9 January 2007 as trustee of the Fund is a joint venture company between EBB and AFG and. The Units will not be tradable on the SGX-ST upon the listing of the Units on the SGX-ST.

The investment objective of the Fund is the generation of strong, risk-adjusted, absolute investment returns over the medium to long term and in all market conditions.
The investment strategy of the Fund is to initially obtain exposure to a Portfolio of international Absolute Return Funds managed by some of the world’s leading absolute return investment managers. This fund of funds approach enables the construction of a portfolio diversified by investment strategy, investment manager and geography.

5) MACARTHURCOOK PROP SEC FUND
- MacarthurCook Property Securities Fund is a diversified, listed property fund that invests in a range of listed property trusts, unlisted property trusts and listed property-related companies registered in Australia. It was listed on the Australian Stock Exchange since 17 December 2004, established with the aim of providing investors with a diversified property-based investment offering a stable level of income with the opportunity for long term capital growth.

The Fund is managed by MacarthurCook Fund Management Limited, a subsidiary of MacarthurCook Limited, a specialist international real estate investment manager.

As at 30 June 2006, the Fund had investments in over 46 funds managed by more than 27 specialist real estate investment managers with more than 1,200 underlying properties under management across office, retail and industrial sectors as well as “non-traditional” sectors like healthcare and childcare. Properties owned by the funds in which the Fund invests are located in Australia, the United States, Europe and New Zealand.

6) SP AUSNET
-SP AusNet is a stapled group comprising SP Australia Networks (Transmission) Ltd, SP Australia Networks (Distribution) Ltd and SP Australia Networks (Finance) Trust or SP Australia Networks (RE) Ltd (the Responsible Entity).

SP AusNet's business consists of an electricity transmission business and electricity and gas distribution businesses. These networks are all located in the state of Victoria where they provide for the supply of energy from producers to consumers. SP AusNet is 1 of 5 providers of electricity distribution services and 1 of 3 providers of gas distribution services.

7) UNITED OVERSEAS AUSTRALIA LTD
- The Company was incorporated in Australia on 17 June 1987 a public company under the name of United Overseas Securities Ltd. Listed on the “Second Board” of the Australian Securities Exchange Limited (ASX) since February 1988. The name of the Company was subsequently changed to United Overseas Australia Ltd on 12 December 1990. It successfully transferred its listing from the “Second Board” to the Main Board of the ASX in 1992.

United Overseas Australia Limited is a property developer and property investment company based predominantly in Kuala Lumpur and focuses on middle to high-end residential and commercial property development and investments in Kuala Lumpur.

The Group believes that its established track record in developing high quality residential and commercial property developments in prime locations within Kuala Lumpur have helped the Group builds brand loyalty in the “UOA” name. Its residential property developments are typically highvalue, multi-phased projects with a focus on the quality of workmanship, interior design and integrated landscaping to create an upmarket, desirable living environment aimed at attracting middle to high
income purchasers. Its residential property projects include fully-fitted villas and apartments. Its commercial property developments comprise mainly office buildings with retail space, for sale and lease. The Group is also co-operate and collaborate closely with Dats Management, which provides building management services for the projects its developed.

The Company’s business can be categorised into four principal activities:
(a) Property Development;
(b) Construction;
(c) Property Investments; and
(d) Building Management (carried out in close co-operation and collaboration with a company known as “Dats Management Sdn. Bhd.”).

Palm Oil Commodity Fight - Wilmar versus Golden Agri

Palm Oil or Crude Palm Oil (CPO) dominated the headings when oil prices were hovering over $150, as a potential alternative biofuel for vehicle usage.

And rightly so, I have been writing some articles on Lithium as a new bet for hybrid car demand. Hybrid car batteries need Lithium, and so this commodity will heat up soon.

So back to palm oil. Besides being a biofuel, the main usage is for cooking oil, basic daily consumption, making soap and many other fast moving consumer goods (FMCG). Now the toss up surely is to look at the largest palm oil producers or harvesters. Who are the players?

Wilmar is the largest, and the current price is over $7.00
Next is Golden Agri, and the current price is around 65 cents.

Both companies own large tracts of palm oil producing fields in Indonesia - Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi. Labour cost is relatively low.

Perhaps the big simple question of investing is to go for the number 1. Wilmar. My suggestion instead is to buy into Golden Agri - 10 lots of Golden Agri is equal to 1 lot of Wilmar. And when price fluctuates, the investor has an easier way to divest out of several lots instead of holding to 1 large costlier lot.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Effective tax 12 percent for Genting Singapore compared to over 39 percent in Macau

Singapore, with its two mega casinos, is unlikely to overtake Macau but may steal some "high-rollers" from China as operators shift premium business to the city-state where they face an effective tax rate of 12 per cent compared with about 39 per cent in the Chinese territory.

What this could translate is greater operating profit.
Say if there was a revenue of $1bil, after approximate after-tax profit would be 88% x 1bil = 880mil
While casinos operating in Macau will be left with just 61% x 1bil = 610mil

That 200mil saved could be used in many ways. Repaying the loan. Paying the salaries of the ten thousand employees, or a bonus to employee. Based on that number each average employee could get $1667 as a year end bonus. Why not?!

Learning from history Genting Berhad 2 year performance

The World Financial Crisis did rattle many stocks and Genting Berhad, mother stock of Genting Singapore, did experience a downturn during that period and also surprisingly another short period durng April 2009 when it was down to only MYR3.20. That translate to about SGD$1.42.

Within two years, Genting Berhad now is trading over MYR10.00 (SGD4.44) or a tremendous gain of 312%


Should this be an indicator of the trend that Genting Singapore could be heading? There are many analysis and predictions for the expected Target Price of Genting Singapore. So this take here is based on not only trend of the mother stock but also plain fundamentals.

Genting Berhad in the old days took 3 years to build the access road up to the mountain to start the building of the resort, hotel and casino. It was estimated to take over 10 years. Very impressive but still no revenue for those 3 years and another few years more to complete the buildings.

Now fast forward to Genting Singapore. The whole resort(apart from a few other sections) is completed and running and making profit in 3 years. And at current revenue estimates, the whole cost of the resort could be paid off in 3-5 years.

One of my earlier articles projected $2.50. My other article suggested about $4.00. So with this article, it is quite solid and possible the price could be in the range of  $2.50 to $4.00 in 2 years.

Comments and suggestions welcome.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Significance of ASX and SGX merger better faster investment options

The buzz surrounding the merger of ASX with SGX is on the news daily in Australia. Every TV news update will have touch-base with this scenario. And about the sovereignty of Australia, a sensitive issue in this patriotic nation. Seeing foreigners buying properties and buying stocks and now buying up their stock exchange. But is it that bad or merely a notion of ill informed citizens?

The case in point is a merger. Not a buyout. The case is a cooperation of resources and size. Not one swallowing up the other. Therefore the outcry is not suppose to resonate much in the longer run.

Now let us look at the significance of this deal. Possibly Singapore investors or those using SGX will be able to access Australian stocks in real time. Currently if your stock brokerage firm is allowing DMA (Direct Market Access) there is a delay time of 15 minutes on stock prices. Not real time. And thus vital changes and price sensitivity advantage is clouded in that delayed relay of pricing. 

Lower fees. Perhaps a lower fees to buy and no more custodian fees on the foreign Australian stock.

I find the whole deal a positive move for investors and for market liquidity as a whole. There is better access to the precious metal and mining companies based in Australia. Remember one of my articles highlighted there are over 200 Mining and Oil stocks in the ASX. And picking up these gems will be easier. Those who are unfamiliar with commodities trading can now buy into the shares of these commodities producers and miners. A better direct investment rather than by proxy. BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Orocobre will be easily accessible to investors. There are over 20 Gold companies in ASX alone. Investors have the option now to invest in gold mining companies rather than just Gold.

Comments and suggestions welcome. 
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