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Thursday, September 30, 2010

Forbes 400 Generosity Club

Great wealth inspires greatness - and maybe envy. But those who give, find more pleasure and fulfilment and a sense of destiny and humanity. Integrity. Here is the 2008 selected lists of top donors and miser.

Name Age Donated Wealth Net Worth Theme
Gordon Moore 79 $7.8 bil $4.4 bil Environmental Causes
George Soros 78 7 bil 11 bil Human rights
 Bill Gates 52 35 bil 57 bil Global public health
 Warren Buffett 78 6 bil 50 bil Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
 Michael Dell 43 1.4 bil 17.3 bil Children's causes
 Jerry Yang 39 75 mil 1.7 bil Stanford University
 Steve Jobs 53 zero 5.7 bil none

Money Making Seminars, MLM, mind tricks and GRC scams

One prominent infamous scam-email-spammer once said "there's is always a lamb out there among the millions of email that I sent". And as long as that single lamb took the bait, profit is made. That is profit? Not. That is exploitation of someone's weakness. In the animal kingdom, if you watched Discovery, or Animal Planet, you will notice something we wouldn't expect in a chivalrous situation. The lion always hunt for the weakest antelope, the baby gazelle, or the ageing elephant. Alas, they call it the circle of life - in the animal kingdom.

But we are not animals. So those who resort to high-handed mind tricks to bring silence to lambs, and a pound of their flesh are those who have no integrity. Not righteous. Not what a true Middle Kingdom (huaxia) person would do. Against the basic tenets of Confucius, or Jesus, and all that is wholesome humanity.

Read this excerpt from an internet marketer/internet trainer/investment guru/expert:
"Several years ago, I bought my CLK Mercedes, thanks to the income from the Internet. This year, I bought another car..."
"My Paypal income is shown here - $10 000 USD in a month!"
"Use my CFD investment tactics and earn $800 USD per day trade. See my sports car as proof."
"My oxygenated water will improve your health and my 500K car"

There is no integrity; not ethical. Finally some lambs will be slaughtered. Money "stolen" paid for a high cost seminar, a system, a health product, a "downline" - if these people are not remorseful, then they really have no heart. It is no different from robbing a fellow human. No different from stealing, and no different from murder - as some of those lambs, might have given their savings, borrowed money, and finally unable to continue this system, or should have used the resources to pay for something more essential, medical payment, food - and finally facing the end of the road.

Therefore, I hope my sharing here will benefit my readers. If you made some money from my analysis, research, sharing - please donate to a reputable charity. For example Tzu-Chi Foundation, your church's St. Vincent de Paul (Society for the Poor), recycle bins, plant a tree, donate a book, give a smile to your neighbour.

"With coarse rice to eat, with water to drink, and my crooked arm for a pillow - is not joy to be found therein? Riches and honors acquired through unrighteousness are to me as the floating clouds."疏食飲水,曲肱而枕,樂在其中矣。不義而富貴,於我如浮雲。- Confucius

Also read this article from the Den of the Lion Investor:

AirAsia consolidated perhaps stability for now

AirAsia consolidated from recent highs of 2.26 to 2.09. The whole 2-3 months have seen prices going up. Perhaps a good chance to sell and then buy in one more wave for stability. Most investors who have held on for 3 years are finally seeing some gains. And partially hoping for a bonus - one, a possible dividend? Two, a possible listing of AirAsiaX with holders of AirAsia stocks having some sort of "pink form" status?

My recommendations since 3 years ago was to accumulate. This little airline that could, has recently beaten the homegrown government-linked-corporation (GLC) Malaysia Airlines (MH or MAS) in market price. Now how is that possible? When year-in-year-out the government has been giving specials to MAS, protecting the routes it flies, and putting obstacle courses literally around the Low Cost Carrier Terminal.

Personally, I have been flying AirAsia constantly, the past 8 years - average 10-12 return flights per year.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Genting Singapore consolidating while expect upwards flow

Genting Singapore consolidated to below $2.00 lately with profit taking kicking in. This is perhaps a good chance to buy into Genting Singapore before another expected upwards flow. Those who have followed and bought at $1.00 average and sold at $2.15 for a super 100% harvest, it is a good time to re-plant.

Among other recommendations, gaming and casino stocks have always been a strong survivor during good and tough times. Therefore other stock recommendations are for Berjaya Toto and Genting Malaysia. Toto going at $4.15 lately has been at this affordable level, with hefty dividends.

Starhub gaining with fruitful dividends

Starhub has been steadily gaining ground to $2.53. Besides the guaranteed harvest of the bountiful dividend fruits, their business strategy is sound. M1 hasn't been performing lately. While Singtel ($3.15) did caught up with some recent gains. Perhaps when Starhub and Singtel has been fully valued, then there could be new movements for M1. All in all, an overweight for the telco businesses.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Googe Adsense Disabled

I signed up with Google Adsense this week. And today, I found it is disabled. Any thoughts or comments on this?
Update 30th Sept: It is fine now.

Technical Analysis Talk

In stock market trading, there are basically two camps. The other side of the fence is called Technical Analysis. It is a beautiful combination of art and maths, poetry and geometry, facts and forecast. And frankly, I am not well versed in this. I have been reading though and studying. And such beautiful words like Ichimoku Cloud, ascending scallop, Elliot Wave Theory, various shapes of geometry and ah, colours! Lines. MACD. So beautiful. It is an art!

For those who want to see the fine financial arts of Technical Analysis, head over to this blog, by raddhyssyob called Technical Analysis Talk.

KNM rebounding to 0.60 target price

KNM is one of the most actively traded stock in Malaysia. The unfortunate circumstances surrounding the failed privatisation process pushed the price from 0.80 gradually to almost 0.38 for the past 6 months or so. That's a 50% down.
This week the price has been hovering higher at 0.44 to 0.46. With positive news stemming from a stronger ringgit, this well-traded stock has a higher possibility to rebound to fair value of 0.60 and possibly to trade northwards to 1.00 by year end.

Some basic information:
KNM Group Berhad (KNM Group) is an investment holding company based in Malaysia. The company designs, manufactures, assembles, and commissions processing units and processing equipment for the oil and gas, petrochemical, and mineral processing industries through its group companies. The group also offers industrial and power plant services including pressure vessel services, and ball valve and valve services, among others. KNM group operates through 27 operating units and engineering centers in 14 countries. KNM Group has its presence in Malaysia, China, India, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Australia, the UK, the UAE, Canada, Brazil, and Italy. The group also exports its products to various overseas destinations. KNM Group is headquartered at Seri Kembangan in Malaysia.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Genting Malaysia target price $4

With Genting Singapore on a turbo to over $2.10 Singapore Dollars, hot money has been flowing into two other Genting stocks namely Genting Malaysia (GENM) formerly Resorts World, and Genting Hong Kong (formerly Starcruises). This volatile week saw GENM rocking from $3.10 to $3.60 and back to $3.40.

This rocking is essentially great news for investors. GENM has been at $2.80 level for a year. Volatility is essentially a promising sign. A hive of activity means there are buyers and sellers and winners and losers, rather than a stagnant priced stock. A dividend is declared - therefore buying now is status CD (cum dividend).

If finally Genting Singapore is priced at an average of $2.00 SGD which is about $4.50 MYR. Could it be possible GENM will arrive at that level of $4.00 as a target price?

What is promising is the gaming business in UK that Genting Malaysia will possess and another gaming business in USA.

Another natural feature of Malaysian KLSE Bursa stocks compared to SGX stocks is the magnitude of price movement. Glove companies such as Top Glove goes up $2-$5. Even Genting Berhad itself went up $4. Therefore, the likelihood of hitting a higher note for GENM is there. Genting Singapore actually doubled up or rose 100%. Using that as another estimation from the stable level of $2.80 for GENM, the target price of a doubling up could arrive at $5.60 as a target price?

SMRT target price - what I wrote on 5 January 2010

Posted 05 January 2010 - 10:34 AM
Nov09 Pick: SMRT $1.78 now $1.94.
Still have room to boost to the $2.00 level. And continue to the valued target price. See my previous postings on SMRT as well as high yield picks in the other forum category.

Comments, suggestions, thanks welcome.
NB: My inbox is always full. So kindly reply regarding the same topic/stock in the threads - so others could see and discuss, and contribute too. There are other shy stock analyst(s) lurking around here.. too! Make friends. Make some money. Be kind and share the happiness. Do the power of now. 

Starhub holding stronger with renewed strength

Another of my picks is Starhub. Those who followed my writings from will know I have bought in when it was $1.70. Through about 9 months, I have ridden the wave twice, and now holding on with fuller confidence - $2.51 - today. Plus I have enjoyed the quarterly dividend that Starhub always deliver. Clearly the buzz surrounding Nucleus Connect and all these highspeed internet for business buildings will propel Starhub further.

Telco sector wise, Singtel too is heading stronger just gentler from $2.95 to $3.10. And hope for a $3.50 target price. M1 is holding its ground well. Target price $2.35

Suntec powers on moving towards its NAV $1.74

Suntec has been doing a dependable and gradual appreciation this year. Current price $1.52 was attain from a slow but certain climb, and through two of this year's "minor crashes". Suntec still came back unscathed. Even with new openings of newer convention centres, Suntec remains a top choice and top office choice. The coming income distribution will certainly solidify Suntec stock price closer to its NAV of $1.74 Singapore dollars.

3 months Target Price: $1.70
Income distribution: Quarterly 2.528 cents
Yield: 6.671%
Annualised DPU: 10.14 cents

Friday, September 24, 2010

Riding the Wave Methodology - 8 July 2009

Posted 08 July 2009 - 09:01 PM
Here are some summary of some personal messages that are related to this topic.
8 July: Now is week one of July. Things have as noted in the detailed analysis above, going slowly, going downwards, 10-20% off the current year's peak for some stocks. Many many wrote telling me negative sentiments. You feel low because the STI is low. You feel you bought just before the "crash" and thanked me for the article, at the same time, hoped it was written at least a month ahead.

Predicting and getting it correct was not my main goal of the writeup. But to show the mechanics and automation of how the whole electronic system runs virtually behind our computer monitors and LCD screens.

Therefore: A pep talk. Down, low, doesn't mean you have to feel low. It's perhaps the second chance to take up enough position now before things go upwards as clockwork.

Case in history: The 1997/1998 then 2001/2002 bear runs where terrible to many. Yet when things went upwards, nobody stated nor proclaimed - Now is the bull run. The bull run or in more subtle wording, the upward movements, just go, gain momentum, and those who bought really really early, gained. Others keep watching, and waiting for the bull run. Then when it's over a considerable peak, you would finally attempt to purchase unit trust funds, or buying a home, but alas, it's too little too late. You'd be paying a hefty amount. For instance, many bought into Rio Tinto when it was peaking at 130 AUD because they finally (too late) believed China and BRIC will gobble and maintain that demand from their mines for the rest of the decade. Today, you know the price.

In cyberspeak: There's no better time to buy that laptop but now.

Coming correction because of selling - Part 2 (18 June 2009)

Posted 18 June 2009 - 11:05 AM18th June 2009:
Apparently the analysis was spot-on and unfortunately a bit earlier than expected for some. For those who were able to read my report above earlier, thank you for your Thanks. The past 3 days, there was large downward movements across the world. 

Right now for those we were caught unaware, a possible strategy is to do the age-old averaging out or averaging down - buying the same stocks to average your price downwards. If you followed most of my suggestions, mainly I have been advocating digestible priced stocks - 20 cents, 50 cents, 1 dollar. Such as Biosensors, ChinaEnergy, ChinaOilField, so slightly bigger SMRT, Singpost, Starhub. So there's a reason for this is uncertain times. Therefore, right now you can see that purpose. It gives you a chance to leverage down, averaging down with a smaller priced stock. If you bought SIA or some other big stocks, it will be hard to average down since the inherent risk is getting greater while several folds of cash needs to be pumped in to move your portfolio's price down. 

Comments, suggestions, thanks welcome. Try to keep posting in the forum so others could read and share too. Two heads are better than one. You could still send me personal messages. 

Coming correction because of selling - what I wrote on 13th June 2009

Posted 13 June 2009 - 12:54 AM
Many have asked me with a lingering concern of a correction.
A correction means a downwards movement after and strong surge in the market. Thie is mainly due to institutional buyers/ (YOUR! Unit Trust) funds, selling their purchase to make a profit and most times, these are made by robots or computer algorithm pre-programmed into their systems during purchase. Most of these fund managers/system, have not just research, but also some complex mathematical automaton, to calculate, suggest and pre-program a fair sell price for the sake of the portfolio's holders which is you the investor in the unit trusts.

For instance, HSBC (Hong Kong) went down to 35 HKD from a high of over 140 HKD, but all along this time there are selling and buying, by the (now not so) complex systems of algorithms and predictive calculations. So when the computer or program sets sight on on buying at 35 HKD, it has some safety threshold to pull out at a staggered level - e.g. sell 10% when gain 10%, sell another 10% when gain 20%. Buy 5% when down 15%. Note that these funds are huge: just like you were told - unit trust are funds put in by people, pooled together to make good decisive (maybe not now) purchases and investments.

So perhaps this Fund spent 100 million HKD (40 million SGD). So prices went up to 35 x 1.10 = 38.5 SOLD 10% of holdings
38.5 x 1.20 = 46.20 SOLD 10% of holdings
46.20 x 1,20 = 55.44 SOLD 10% of holdings
That's already 30% sold and prices has went up by 57%

Today: HSBC has moved over 70 HKD. Well still half of it's former 2007 glory days. BUT the computer or program were already pre-program. It's not just one stock nor one fund. It's 200 funds, managing 1000 stocks and chances are most of them buy into high profile stocks that we all know moves the market and also are part of the indexes - STI, KLCI, FTSE index. In short sometimes these "lazy fund managers" just mirror most of an index - then sets the program going automatic.

So now you have: Singtel, SIA, Citibank, big, all very big, Toyota, Walmart and 1000 other stocks that MOVE THE INDEX all going into auto-pilot. And these auto-pilot has seen prices going up and up at an accelerated speed literally - exponential in such a short time. So in effect, it will come a time when the system seems to be doing the selling at around the same time - it triggers the technical or computerised situation of a correction. The casual investor panics and sells as well. But remember the programs will set AUTO to buy when a stock goes down 15%. So when you SOLD your stock and a few of your friends too who pushed the price down 15%, the AUTO buys it in. Knowing that it had previously MADE PROFIT when it was up to the 46.20 HKD.

What did you learn from the above? The more money pooled, the more powerful you can control and make profits. A 5% gain x 40 million SGD is alot of money. So now you understand why those FUND Managers keep pestering you to invest in their 20% p.a. profit fund. (Past performance doesn't guarantee future yields!)

Back track to the main topic: so reading the signs to see why this correction is coming. CHINA SSEA up 52% since 31st Dec 2008. Canada 28%. HK Hang Seng 29%, STI 35%, KLSE 19.5%, KOSPI 28% Taiwan 51% Thai 32%, Brazil 66% Emerging Market MSCI 38%. (Page 90, The Economist 6th - 12th June 2009)

Basically not looking at previous historical highs of 2007, comparing just last day of 2008 - to current status. Most are up avg 38%.

Stock portfolio are supposed to outperform bonds(5-7%), FD (3-5%), cash (0-2%) by say 8-12%. Now it's up 38% half a year or 76% p.a. rate.

Therefore, the question you have asked me is WHEN? Humbly, my educated and researched guess is from July to Sept or should I say, between July nd Sept. Because both statements have their merits. It could be a continuous slow nosedive and nobody (the small individual buyers) seem to be able to pick up - e.g. 2 cents down every week OR if could be a major 1-5 days of spiral just like in the bad old days of Sept 2008.

Extra news:
Several Middle East funds bought into ailing UK banks etc at the downturn, some even before the downturn. Even Temasek or GIC bought some of those e.g. UBS. Selling today still make a loss. But still a smaller loss so some of them recently were sold. Some were sold too because of the imminent crash of the USD.

Comments, suggestions, thanks welcomed.
If you do write to me, kindly put in more details. Some introduction would be nice. E.g. you are starting with x amount of stocks. You are using this system. You read about Wilmar's stock news. Show some of your research. It's not quite polite or amusing if you just wrote "do you think Nokia will go up? Thanks". 

SUNTEC - what I wrote on 19th July 2009

Posted 19 July 2009 - 12:31 PM
Just to prep those who follow SUNTEC and in general, REITs.
SUNTEC has a twice yearly distribution. The next one is coming in August. Based on past trend, it is usually 100% distributed at about 4-5 cents. I personally have bought in. While I'd write a more detailed recommended real soon.

Right now just away from a better internet connection. 
Posted 20 July 2009 - 09:44 AM
Yes precisely with retail/shopping/office rental going steady now, things will definitely get rosier for SUNTEC. It's fair to expect a gain upwards to $1.00 and perhaps above in the short term. Plus, the dividend is guaranteed. Payout is coming.
flyersummer said:
is it wise ti buy in at .90+ since price will go come above $1.00 in the near future?

Genting Singapore - what I wrote on 22nd December 2009

Posted 22 December 2009 - 10:55 AM
The nature of uncertainty means there is apprehension to buy in until the resort is opened, and customers and cashiers are ringing the bling.

While the recent Dubai World situation keeps people back on alert of sudden fall, Genting is one stable growth company that is all geared for it's future in Singapore - the central place that links all in. And with clean clear cut laws and taxes, and virtually the lowest corruption in Asia, Genting is betting itself on itself here - instead of its flagship in Malaysia.

My very fair estimates are $1.35 that is 20 cents gain (17%) on current prices. Those who've bought way back in during my earlier recommendation, should hold on further again. If you've done the wave-riding technique, you might have sold at $1.20 last week, and could have bought back again today at $1.17 assuming 3 cent brokerage, you've virtually lock in on your previous 30% gains. Congrats! 

Singapore Stocks Old Post

Previously, I have been writing all my Fundamental Analysis in - now I am porting them over here.
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