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Wednesday, December 29, 2010

KNM momentum - getting many projects year end 2010

Looking back at my previous write-up on KNM, 28th Sept, (see my previous writeup on KNM by click the KNM label on the right bar) it has thus gained a very powerful momentum almost right after.

19th Nov - KNM gets RM680mil job in Uzbekistan.
25th Nov - KNM profit up 75.7% for the 3 months ended 30th Sept.
13th Dec - KNM join venture with Petrosab Logistik to target oil and gas projects in Sabah.
22nd Dec - KNM secures RM2bil EPCC (engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning) biomass and waste recycling contract in UK with Peterborough Renewable Energy for 4 years.

Look at the chart below.


NOTE: KNM shares has since been consolidated 4 into 1. My previous article was based on the price of 40 sen when I was writing the article and when it was not consolidated. The chart shows consolidated prices and retrospectively adjusted as well. Meaning the chart shows as 40sen x 4 = RM 1.60

So from that low point of RM1.60, KNM has risen to over RM2.90. Hope you have bought during that period and made your year-end Christmas bonus!

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Merry Christmas 2010

Soon it will be Christmas Day.
Instead of giving handouts, perhaps try Kiva - give responsible micro loans to needy humans all over the world. Can just start this Christmas and 2011. See my Kiva post(s).

Monday, December 20, 2010

Loans that changes lives Denzuke Finance Art of Your Mind Group

Join me and a worldwide community dedicated to make the end of poverty a possibility. Here's my team profile. You choose which community you wish to help by giving them a micro-finance loan starting from just $25 (about $33 SGD or 75 RM). This is a loan to the community and it means you will get the loan amount back.

Essentially this is a very good concept and method in helping end poverty. You are helping but not giving free handouts which sometimes result in inefficiency. For instance, donations to UNDP usually is inefficient because over 90% of the amount donated is spent on logistics, promotional brochures, and salaries of high paying first-world country executives being brought into the third-world country in an expatriate package!

http://www.kiva.org/team/artofyourmind
Art of Your Mind - Team Denzuke Finance

I've setup the links above and you can browse first, read all about the steps in giving out the micro-finance. I've also setup a "Team" meaning can track how big my Team is doing, helping others, which communities, how much loan given and returned. It is a nice statistic to view. You know we are always attracted with some statistics, like football or simply how our stocks are faring. So this is great.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Bangkok temperature 23 Celsius today

A very cool day in Bangkok! Was going to my Body Pump class today. The cool air all over kept even non-aircon buses cool. The non-air-conditioned buses normally will have their windows fully opened. But today, most were closed shut!

Vision 2020 Malaysia when everyone has left

Postulating theories and what-ifs is one superior trait human has over animals. Imagination. Yes Einstein said it. Is more important than knowledge. He virtually imagined out how the theory of relativity would worked. And then began to work on it on paper.

So here I am doing a different take on Vision 2020. The year whereby and supposedly all citizens of Malaysia will be truly equal, the country truly developed and everyone living in harmony, and unity.

It will start about 3-5 years before the year 2020. Just somewhat similar to 1997 for Hong Kong. Now, those who have the means and savings to migrate to developed nations like Australia, or being semi-recruited into Asean Scholarship System and thus have a golden path in Singapore had already begun the exodus.

There was a new policy by two giants of the world economy. China and India. After hearing the plight of people with Chinese descent having an unequal footing, China openly invites all who have the blood of the Middle Kingdom to be able to reside in the Mainland. Highly talented scientist, corporate figures, can even reside in bigger cities such as Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Those who have ancestries to their "hometown" can own property in their hometown where their forefathers came from. Such as Guangdong province (mainly Cantonese speakers), Shantou (Teochew), Hainan, and various other dialect "tribes".

A similar policy was also offered by India.

These two giants know how invaluable human capital is. China is too huge to have a system akin to Singapore, whereby inviting Europeans or Americans to live and work is possible. Diversity. While maintaining a political status quo. They studied urban civilisation, planning, for years to improve their policy. Not just economics and politics. Social, the environment, sustainability - looking forward to the next 100 years. Not merely 5 years as can be seen in Malaysia.

Property sold by the thousands. Stocks and market equity sold. Even savings or paper money, sold to buy renminbi. Stakes sold in companies.

The proper postulation would leave still a handful of people. But let's assume everyone has left.

1st of January year 2020, there are no more citizens of Chinese nor Indian descent remaining in Malaysia.

What next? What is happening next in 100% Bumiputera Malaysia?
1) For a start, now there is no more Bumiputera discount for properties - which ranged from 7% to 30% - basically property that is subsidised by the non-Bumi citizen. There seem to be no one rejoicing. Because the majority of the low and middle income Bumiputeras are still unable to purchase property whether there was a discount or not to start with. Only the rich elite can.

2) The government revenue drops sharply over the last 3 years. Revenue from the education, printing, business, trading, rubber, steel, alcohol, and the big gambling industry.

3) The policy of inviting Middle Eastern investors and residents is evident and unfortunately the new friction point. The whole prime shopping district in the middle of the city, is virtually owned by the newbies.

4) The policy of inviting immigrants from Indonesia and Singapore (to a lesser extent) of Malay descent and granting them automatic Bumiputera rights the past decade has eroded the actual citizens value. Be it property, creating a lower overall property class - or the richer ones - buying up all prime location while the Bumiputera discount was valid - has created a new chasm in (ah!) economic inequality again.

5) Education level hits extremely low level. Even manufacturing plants have to shut down - lacking skills both technical and managerial skills resulting in lower output, productivity and profitability.

6) Bumiputera equity increased from 30% to 100% of major firms, but lost 90% of their value when foreign investors started selling their shares the last 5 years. Growth and profitability keeps sinking.

7) Approved Permits are virtually useless and worthless - where once there were worth 35 000 RM each for automotive imports. Many of those AP holders had already left the country with their millions of wealth, living a life of luxury in London, Australia and Switzerland.

8) The business model of "Ali and Baba" goes into a downward spiral. "Ali" waits for "Ali". There is no more "Baba" to do the actual job. Contracts stagnant. Demand declines. Offices close. Random crimes increasing from lack of job, salary, and uncertainty.

There will be a clear eye opener for politics and alas, finally the lay Bumiputera person, can see why the policies are wrong all the way. There were never putera in the first place nor the current place. It was just but an illusion.

Here's a summary of the future by Patrick Teoh.


THE ABOVE POSTULATION may sound a bit harsh. It is after all, imagination from bits and pieces of daily struggle that many people encounters everyday that I came across in Malaysia. One Korean traveller asked why the monorail does not connect to the KL Central transportation hub whereby it is just another 200 metres away. Well now kindly use your imagination.

EDMI - electronic revenue meters

There was a request to review this company by a reader of my blog.

Essentially this company seems to have quite a good growth record. Earnings and dividends both up exponentially. The company specialises in the manufacturing and distribution of metering devices used by electricity providers. Electronic revenue meters used by the utilities company.

It seems quite a pretty promising venture. This company even won an award given by SAP - Best SAP Business All-In-One Implementation Project.

The current price is around 30 cents. Up over 45 percent from a year ago. Well alot of shares too have doubled up after the Global Financial Crisis. They have some onward growth market going in Indonesia, Malaysia and Hong Kong.

A view of their corporate site - http://www.edmi-meters.com/Products.aspx

Part 2 Losing 3kg of fat in 2 weeks

A few more thing to add to my previous article on losing 3kg of fat in 2 weeks.
1) I took Braggs Apple Cider Vinegar with water about 3-5 times each day. Also at times with carrot juice. I bought this carrot juice called Harvey Fresh 100% Carrot Juice. 100% Australian Owned.
http://www.harveyfresh.com.au/products/UHT-Carrot-Long-Life-Juice-%252d-1-Litre.html
Well that's what stated in the box patriotic pride for the Aussies. It is very good and tasty. Taste is carrot-y. Compared to all sorts of juices out there, and brands AND content, you know many of those juice sellers are putting alot of extra sugar, glucose, orange juice, apple juice or from concentrate. So I really like this brand and the contents. No added stuff.

2) Everyday I made a glass of Tie Guan Yin chinese tea. I added water through the day. Sometimes I will fill it onto my water bottle (Oishi Genmai Green Tea bottle, I re-use the bottle) then bring it to the gym. At the gym I just mix more water. SO it is mild but have some properties of the chinese tea. Tie Guan Yin is supposed to great at absorbing or limiting the effects of fatty food. That's one reason it is always on the table in dim sum restaurants. Well normally dim sum places offers 3 types of chinese tea. This one is definitely the best in neutralising the effects of fatty food.

3) Every three days or so, I do an hour of Thai foot massage. This method of passive exercise and pseudo-acupuncture is therapeutic. If done right, the technique performed will help to stimulate the glands, internal organs, and vitals of our body that sometimes are "asleep". Depending on the person doing the massage for you, some will do very strong deep muscle long kneading. I like this best. And some will use alot of the wooden apparatus to trigger the massage points. The top of my ankles are pretty weak, I think. And in general, the area surrounding my ankles. So massaging there gives a nice feeling. I have flat feet that presumably have been affecting my health such as balance, abnormal balancing of body weight, fallen arches, and misalignment of some bones in the legs. Well that is a whole story altogether.

So that's the sum of all the routine I've been doing the past 2 weeks to do battle with fat invaders. They are not invaders now. They have been squatters! So now have to bulldoze, demolish, get them out. One by one.

If you haven't tried Body Pump, go for it once.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

AirAsia placing bets on 80 million in Philippines

AirAsia Malaysia = 25 million customers
AirAsia Thailand = 68 million customers
AirAsia Indonesia = 230 million customers

And now targeting the Philippines = 92 million potential passengers
Imagine AirAsia operating domestic flights within the archipelago.

Then next, surely it will be Vietnam with a large population and strategic cities.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Losing 3kg of fat in 2 weeks

3000 grams divided by 14 days. That is an average of 214 grams per day.

The age old topic of losing weight or more correctly, losing fat. This was my awakening. After I gained over 8 kgs in 6 months. And 5 kg in the last 2.5 months. So I had to do a few things about it. So 1st of December, I checked my weight (well I was very upset!) and started.

One was cutting all sources of sugar and big carbohydrates. They make me feel sleeping at after lunch time. So cutting these, made me feel so much more energised. I substituted my meals or food with more protein. Pretty much raw protein from eggs and chicken. Two to three eggs in a bowl, and microwave-d. Checking every 10 seconds and stirring. I used some Maggi seasoning on it. Tastes great. Instead of the meal set, I opted for 2 pieces of chicken in KFC. Then changed also well to chicken strips at the market. Some canned tuna. Also I used bak choy. First chopped them into little pieces. Then put them on a bowl. Then pour hot water over it. It is bland yes, but eating with the fried chicken balances both way. I had some papaya intermittently, and also guava. And kiwi. And one packet of potato chips!

Next is exercise. I had been going to the Body Pump class a week before about 4 times. So I ramped up that with daily Body Pump classes, in the morning (10:45am) and 12 noon classes. Some jogging on the treadmill. About 15 minutes. Some times I do some light weight machines 10 times each randomly. I am not such a great gym user. Then 10 minutes jogging before the class. And after. Some days nil. Just purely class.

The class is awesome. It makes you pumped up with the music. An average tune these days range from 4-5 minutes. For example. the bicep workout. You'll be doing some very slow counts like 3 up, and 1 down. Or 2 by 2. 2 counts up and 2 counts down. Or singles, 1. Down. 2. Down. 3. Down. The music keeps you motivated. The trainer too. After the song, you would have done over 50 repetitions (or reps in gym talk!). I never ever done more than 10 each time if I do my random exercise. And very haphazard 3 sets if any. So the class really keeps me disciplined.

There are 2 more weeks to go. So my target is another 2-3 kg of fat. Off.

Hap Seng Bollinger Bands

Look at this Bollinger Bands chart for Hap Seng. From $2.80 went up to $5.20. How is that possible?
Bollinger On Bollinger Bands - The Seminar, DVD I

This "tip" was supposedly possible using detailed charting and rules to "catch" the trend. Has anyone done this or have experience using such tools such as from Chartnexus?

Monday, December 13, 2010

AirAsia starts Tunetalk in Thailand

Yesterday there was a news that Tony Fernandez was in Bangkok. And as usual, he doesn't travel for holidays. He was here for business. The business. TuneTalk is starting up a Mobile Virtual Network Operator concession from the state-run TOT. License has already been given by the National Telecommunications Commission.

Now Everyone Can Talk is the tagline.

Their targets are very high.
1) Providing 3G wireless broadband on behalf of TOT on 13th January 2011.
2) One Sim Card, one flat calling rate throughout the region.
3) 500 000 subscribers within 18 months
4) 1 million customers by 2012
5) Average revenue per user 150-200 Baht
6) Breakeven is at 500 000 customers.
7) MVNO Sim to be sold on AirAsia planes. Customers can redeem TuneTalk points for free AirAsia flights.

Certainly hope I can get to try it out in Thailand in January. And I might be hoping for the skies. But here's what on my mind:
1) A Sim card that can be used (perhaps) throughout Asean.
2) Validity is limitless or 1 year so users can keep using and holding the same number.
3) Usage throughout Asean will have similar costs instead of current high roaming charges.

A World Without Oil National Geographic

Try to use your imagination. Use your illusion. Picture ...

A World Without Oil - by National Geographic. I just saw it last night.

Human civilisation would crumple in less than a year when there is no oil. The exponential shift in civilization, warfare, politics, economics, healthcare, transportation, virtually any genre, field, or sector - is fuelled literally by oil.

Lipsticks? Yes made from oil which includes most cosmetics.

Antihistamine? Yes made from oil. Sniff sniff!

Shoes ladies and men? Yes made from oil. Equally guilty Gucci or Jimmy Choo.

Detergent and disposable diapers? Yes, a baby is guilty of being an oil consumer as soon as the day of independence.

Toothpaste - yes and perhaps a deep YES for those who hate to brush their teeth.

Insecticides and repellant - yes.

Lubricant for the car, for machinery - yes oil.

Refrigerators - yes the demise of CFC doesn't make you greener.

And a whole bunch of other "stuff"! Virtually every other thing you may be in contact with will have a ingredient coming from oil or petroleum.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Is that ideology important enough to kill each other over

This is a quote from the Korean war movie Tae Guk Gi:
Is that ideology important enough to kill each other over?
The starving soldiers asked their commander.

Then next quote is poignant. Literally the lay person's lamentation of why is there such a war in the first place.
"We fought against Japan to save our country, but what is this one for?"

Tony Fernandes Businessman of the Year by Forbes

Tony Fernandes is Forbes Asia’s Businessman of the Year

KUALA LUMPUR, 3 DECEMBER 2010 – AirAsia Group CEO Tony Fernandes has been named Forbes Asia’s Businessman of the Year.

Fernandes is the first Malaysian and Southeast Asian to receive the award. The hugely popular icon of aviation is credited for democratizing air travel in the region and for growing a Malaysian company into a highly successful global brand. Forbes Asia’s editor, Tim Ferguson, said in a press release, “The competition was tough, including from leaders of Forbes Asia’s Fabulous 50 companies. Although several mainland Chinese entrepreneurs fully came into their own this year, in general they are still excelling in a single national market that is subject to domestic booms and busts. Fernandes is expanding his business outward.”

Fernandes has transformed Asia’s travel landscape since taking over the then loss-making AirAsia in 2001. He redefined air travel by sticking true to AirAsia’s slogan of “Now everyone can fly.” He offered low fares coupled with premium products and services, a hit combination that has attracted guests from across the socio-economic spectra. AirAsia has, in less than nine years, flown more than 100 million guests, many of whom never dreamed that they could one day afford to fly. Since taking over the helm, he turned the airline into Asia’s biggest low-cost carrier and expanded its base from Malaysia to across the Asean region, home to 600 million people. He grew AirAsia phenomenally fast - it now has 140 routes to 23 countries, a fleet of close to 100 and a staff that is 8,000-strong. Aside from connecting communities in the Asean region and neighboring Asian countries, AirAsia also connects the region to, through low-cost long-haul affiliate AirAsia X, more destinations in Asia, Australia, New Zealand and Europe, boosting national economies through travel and tourism. Fernandes’ businesses share the underlying philosophy of “serving the underserved.” His other business interests, which operate under the umbrella of Tune Group, include Tune Hotels, Tune Money, Tune Talk, Tune Sports, Tune Tones, Tune Studios and Kuala Lumpur Education City (KLEC). KLEC is bringing into Malaysia Epsom College, which is one of the UK’s premier boarding schools. He is the team principal of Lotus Racing F1 team. Fernandes also founded the Asean Basketball League, which is the first professional basketball league in the Asean region.

The full Forbes Asia article on Fernandes’ receipt of the Businessman of the Year award is available online at http://www.forbes.com/global/2010/1220/features-airasia-tony-fernandes-flying-on-budget.html and in the magazine’s December 2010 issue on newsstands.

I wonder what happened to the original TuneAir people? The lazy ones who were hoping the company would go bust and waiting for a government rescue aka. handout or bailout.

AirAsia ChCh 11000 seats snapped up in 2 hours

Heard from a big bird, the CEO of AirAsia X himself that 11000 seats from KUL to CHC were snapped up in 2 hours. If basing on the lowest fare of 200 RM per seat, that would be an instant gross revenue of 2.2 mil. Note that the return leg of an international flight usually will be priced higher and at the destination currency. Here it is NZD.

Julian Assange wins Nobel Peace Prize?

There was a cover-up in Watergate. Then a pardon to a criminal ex-president. How unfair the world is? Yes. Then elected twice a war criminal as president. Plus hundreds years of free labour, wonder how this country could have the cheek to keep saying they are correct.

Only recent years, a US warplane "accidentally" knocked down another sovereign country plane in that country's airspace. No action taken. Well if that were to happen even close to US airspace, a war will be declared and millions of bombs laid on poor farmers again - ala Laos and Vietnam.

I haven't read any US President apologising for their military and egoistic defeat in those countries.

In recent years too, a bunch of Laotian anti-government group were arrested. They were funded by USA to create terror to Laos. Now since terror groups are outlawed, they were arrested. Imagine how shell-shocked those bunch of puppets were. Ditto to what one side of the Iran-Iraq war Santa Claus felt.

Therefore why shouldn't Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize? With these wrongdoing information given to public, the wrongdoer country cannot stomach it and cannot contain it, and there is no Black Ops, Bourne Ultimatum, ThreadStone to go over.

With these publications, it is perhaps possible to show the insane nature of some US government policies. Canal, Contra, Watergate, WMD, Vietnam, Agent Orange.

Really hoping for the day, Thai people could visit USA for R and R, and paying 1 baht to 30 USD exchange rate.

AirAsia to Christchurch finally

AirAsia has finally beaten the unbeaten track. Flights from South East Asia to Christchurch, New Zealand. Almost all major airlines do not fly into this secondary airport in the Southern Island of NZ. They prefer Auckland because of capacity, population, commercial and business centre prospects.

The only airline that was doing direct flights was Singapore Airlines.

So now finally, AirAsia is opening a new floodgate.
1) The first budget airline to get into CHCH.
2) No MAS (Malaysia Airlines) flights into CHCH. Therefore, no undercutting by MAS.
3) Potentially boosting throughput at KLIA-LCCT (Low Cost Carrier Terminal) - with travellers opting to use AirAsia therefore making a stopover in LCCT.

Previously, travellers from say Thailand, Cambodia, even Malaysia, will have to to be funnelled into Changi Airport before boarding their direct flight using Singapore Airlines. Now, they will be naturally funnelled into LCCT to CHCH.

For 200 RM (80 SGD) one way to CHCH, it might even lure Singapore based travellers to take the short flight now to LCCT! So finally, after years of sitting closely and watching airplanes and tourists dollars literally flying into the Republic of Singapore, finally, some tourists dollars will land on Malaysia shores. The irony of it is the government had been totally unhelpful to AirAsia for years, by blocking routes and helping MAS indirectly and directly.

Very similar protectionism in the car industry whereby Proton is being protected, that simply doesn't help the nation and citizens.

On average the cost of a high quality imported Japanese car is 50000 RM. But due to protectionist system in place, the price is over 100000 RM. While the cost of a locally assembled "national" car, perhaps should cost less than the Japanese car - say 25000 RM. But is artificially jacked-up to 50000 RM. As you can see, the sum of it is the citizen loses by paying more for an inferior quality car (and sacrificing safety).

The car industry should not have been implemented in the first place. As you know, what you never had you will never miss. Now the "addiction" is there. Everyone has a need to own a car. It is not The Need For Speed, but The Need To Own. And alas, the 2 other important criteria to make a car-owning system works - 1) better safer larger roads and traffic system
2) better safer larger connected public transportation system
- DOES NOT EXIST.

So there you go. Two classic cases of protectionism gone wrong. And perhaps into a few politicians pocket and bank account.

Unbeatable stock picks still hold

The common question in investment is what are the safest unbeatable stocks pick please?

If you bought Genting Singapore at 2.00 recently (see previous articles), you would have gained roughly 14 cents or 7% return in a week.

The other unbeatable stock - Singtel was trading at close to $3.00.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Dangers of quantitative easing

Quantitative easing is an inefficient way to prop up the economy. In short, the process moves hot money into the economy directly, hoping it will generate jobs and have a multiplier effect. Jobs creating jobs.

The age-old example by Keynes is this: take all the gold bullion in the Treasury, get 50 trucks to transport them across the country, then use diggers to dig up 100 feet deep and bury the gold inside. Then seal it. Then get another group of contractors to use train or trucks to dig out the gold, and move them back into the Treasury vault.

The whole process is supposed to create jobs for the truckers. Jobs for managers. Jobs for insurance company to insure the cargo of gold. Jobs for coffee makers. Jobs for tyre. Jobs for petrol station. Jobs for burger flippers.

So fast forward to Quantitative Easing 2, in the year 2010. How will it be performed and why is it inefficient? This cartoon below will dispel the clouds. You will learn why QE2 is not that great for the US economy. Why the Fed is not being respected. Why Goldman Sachs seems to be untouchable as a financial institution in a very wrong sense.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

AirAsia now everyone can invest

AirAsia's mantra of "Now Everyone Can Fly" is a powerful creed that touches everyone's heart and longing to go above the clouds. Everyone here of course means the average person and below. The middle-income. The backpacker. The one that could afford full fare commercial airline - but will "lose" several months of saving. Now Everyone Can Fly is a short sentence that truly touches Asian hearts. Well, at least we know in Asia, we have the biggest population of middle and low income folks. And on average, the supremacy of a foreign country such as Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro - will always cast a shadow on an average Asian's disposable income.

The truly elusive question and litmus test is: which country can I travel to that allows my 1 unit of currency to equal 5 times of theirs? Or 3 times. Or just 2 times. None. But an Australian can be wondering (happily) the amount of food costs in say Thailand with the equivalent of a lunch in Australia that typically costs 9 AUD (270 Baht). An average Thai meal costs 50 Baht. Or 100 Baht at a equivalent Subway sandwich bar. Wow.. amazing my currency gives me 3 meals here in Asia.

So which average Thai person can "savour" the "money power" if they may have it? Let's try. Let's transport him to Indonesia. Average meals cost 20 000 Rupiah (75 Baht). That's same or more than average. Let's go to Vietnam. Supposed to also cheaper since their GDP and GNP is lower. Nope. A bowl of pho noodles costs 40 Baht. Try India. Try Laos (prices are in DOLLARS!). None. Try Zimbabwe. You won't want to visit there for a holiday would you? So Australians, you are lucky b-tards!

So the average Asian will still be average. There's no tripling of the power of your savings when travelling. Alas, this is the truth.

But one thing perhaps if you can notice how AirAsia could let you fly for the cost of a bus fare to the next pronvince, wouldn't it mean it is potential investment you can put your savings into and hoping it will triple like what the Australians magically hold in their bank savings account?

I guess if now everyone can fly, then now everyone can invest. In AirAsia.
It is definitely a no brainer to buy an airticket that costs the same bus fare from Phuket to Bangkok. And thus it is a no-brainer too to invest in the stocks of AirAsia.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Tae Guk Gi Korean Brotherhood A Touching Story

At tense "warlike" moments like now November 2010, we can only try not to imagine if an onset of war, or world war can create to human, a person, families and earth itself.

I can recall one poignant movie I saw at the Scala in Bangkok in 2004. Titled "Tae Guk Gi" or "Brotherhood". Incidentally, Guk Gi means flag, and in a chinese dialect, "gork gii" means flag too. Tae Guk Gi also means the pre-war flag of Korea.

A nice big question for you. Why is Korea separated? Why is it North and South?
The movie answers it in its own way. Just imagine, as villagers, as farmers, as nobodies. When a group of people with guns come to our village, and demand tapioca, or all the poultry. We have to give in to their demands, give them what they wanted. Then we toil the soil again. Then another group of armed men comes into our village. Now they accuse us of helping the other group. And they want to teach us a lesson by burning our huts. We cry. We cried. We are beaten. And we don't know why.

Think about Vietnam. And the Vietnam war. And why finally some villagers with nothing can defeat a military superpower with limitless ammunition and budget.

Sounds familiar or not? Well this is how war is. How it is to the nobodies. We do not know what is really going on and who to help and who not to trust. But when a gun is pointed at our heads, we give to that person. Whether it is CIA, so-called guerillas, militias, drug masters, Nazis, or whoever who has a big gun, we succumb to the basic tenets of preservation of life. Give in.

So these poor villagers. Be it "communist" or not or whatever label the Western propaganda made about Vietnamese. These are humans and farmers.

So now all the mess of brain-washing, propaganda, deceit, confusion - is left with a nation torn into two for over 50 years. When I was on a flight out of South Korea in 2006, there was no other passenger in my cabin. I had some kimchi which I bought and requested the flight stewardess to keep it in the aircraft fridge. We talked about Korea. At that time, I didn't know much of the history. But felt their passion to succeed and pride and making their country successful. That's how they leapfrogged Malaysia from a recipient nation to a donor nation in just 4 decades. I just commented about the movie, Taegukgi, and just my wish the Korean nation can be united. She was very touched. The flight stewardess offered me the whole bottle of wine.

This movie goes beyond talking about a relentless sacrifice a brother was willing to make for the younger brother. This story happens in real life throughout South East Asia. How sacrifice means letting your siblings go to school. How sacrifice means working and saving money now, for the future. How sacrifice meant taking a 3 month boat ride out of China, to work hard for years, to send money home.

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Jim Rogers Lessons for Life and Investing

Legendary investor Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1970, retired at the age of 37 in 1980, and spent a number of years traveling through China and six continents by motorcycle.

He recently fathered two daughters in his sixties and wrote this small memoir to share with them some of the insights that he has garnered from his experiences. He advises to make your own decisions in life rather than listening to others, to figure out what you love to do and focus on that rather than what is expected of you, and to have a dream and to live your dream.

In the area of finances, he says to save and invest early on rather than spending frivolously, so that you will be able to afford the important things in life later, and to do your own research, draw your own conclusions, and look to the future - not the past - for great ideas. These and other nuggets of wisdom from this self-made man are worth reading several times over. -- David Siegfried

Against all odds and protectionism AirAsia still soars

The age old David and Goliath story continues with David growing bigger. While MAS being protected by the government is not. Not that we want to see such story of glory, but the long corporate culture of government bailouts, handouts, protectionism, inequality, unfairness and the list goes on, has but underscore the capital letter "I" in inefficiency - unfortunately in Malaysia.

 To snub the so-called supremacy and protection, and irony of the "supremacy" with fear and calling it distributing income to other lesser native people, I guess the best way is via the most legal and yet enterprising way. Buy AirAsia. AirAsia is the proven model that no matter how much lop-sided things are, as long as you have a very sound plan, very good corporate governance and seed culture (grow your culture during its infancy) - stay united and synergise every employee's energy without regard to race, religion, shape - you can and you will be better than be crippled with crutches that are unnecessary.

Sometimes if the competition or "The Others" is still looking narrow-sightedly about chasing tails, such as giving promotion whenever and wherever AirAsia is promoting (e.g. AirAsia did an Australian promotion, and MAS countered with all AU cities that AirAsia served only - disregarding Sydney) - AirAsia didn't look back anymore. But so much more forward. Have to point out the other case which is creating Kota Kinabalu as the second hub for AirAsia in Malaysia. Next day, MAS announces the same! This reminds me of what

TO quote and rephrase Buzz Lightyear: "To Asia and Beyond". (To Infinity and Beyond)
I believe that has been what AirAsia has been focusing on. Now everyone can fly, and now everyone can own a company they can be proud of. Definitely if you are a Malaysian national, you'd be proud when a stranger from France talking about your country and the next thing besides Petronas Twin Towers is AirAsia!

Impressive AirAsia 3rd Quarter 2010 results

AirAsia showing super strength with impressive 3rd Quarter 2010 results:
+ earnings up 152% from RM130 mil to RM328 mil
+ revenue up 34% from RM739 mil to RM987 mil
+ Earnings Per Share (EPS) at 11.90 sen
+ 12% passenger growth
+ 22% higher fare from RM142 to RM173
+ Seat load factor up 3% to 78%
+ Core operating profit up 539% at RM216 mil
+ Core operating profit margin 21.9% from 4.6%

Share price of AirAsia rose 10sen to close at RM2.55. Still a relatively good buy comparing to any other airline out there. With the new Haneda (Tokyo) route and Seoul route opening soon, all of the top Asian economies are now connected via AirAsia. Here is a breakdown into "regions".
1) Whole of Asean
2) Japan, Korea, Taiwan - economic powerhouse
3) China
4) India
5) London and Paris (Orly)
6) Australia

Risks to think about:
AirAsia had handled well air transportation crises in the past. So even the recent earthquake and volcano in Indonesia, was handled efficiently. Past risks tackled nicely includes SARS, Bali bombings, Thailand government political changes and fuel surcharge situation during 2007-2008.

AirAsia made travelling on budget a reality. Many of those who convert to AirAsia may still complain. But they know the savings gained far outweigh any "difficulties" moving from a full fledge commercial airline, to a budget airline. Very soon, the population may have "forgotten" what is was like to travel by air in "luxury". Which is a good thing. What you never had, you will never miss. And what you had for a relatively low price, you'll want more - you'll want to FLY AirAsia more.

Buying Genting Singapore at $2.00

Staying focus takes courage and patience. Recent testing environment made many a seller of Genting Singapore. As well as a slew of other top rated stocks. While those who have the patience, would have picked up some good deals.

Focusing on high end and nitrile gloves Kossan beats competition

As you may recall, I wrote a recent rubber industry (mainly rubber gloves) round-up some weeks ago. Personally I was trying to determine which stock to enter. I finalise to two - Rubberex and Kossan. Then finally chose Kossan.

Kossan has been moving production to nitrile gloves since July 2010. Focusing on powder-free nitrile and surgical gloves, and basically to go higher-end of the glove market.

Nitrile gloves are made of synthetic latex. They contain no latex proteins and offer excellent resistance to punctures and tears. Nitrile gloves are three times more puncture resistant than rubber and can be used to offer superior resistance to many types of chemicals.

Unlike other latex gloves, nitrile gloves have low resistance to friction and are very easy to slide on. There are a few other reasons that nitrile gloves are more popular than other latex or vinyl gloves, including a higher degree of flexibility and superior solvent resistance.

There are several ways these companies now operate.
A mix of both nitrile and natural rubber gloves. Purely rubber. Purely nitrile. Natural rubber gloves have long been contended by synthetic rubber glove. Mainly from US propaganda machine to reduce a dependence on natural rubber products which only several countries in the world produces. Politics aside, going both ways is best. Given the nature that diversification is how financial management and investment should be played.

So you have zoomed in onto the sector. Rubber Gloves. And now choose a company that offers good growth and specialisation - yet enough product diversification.

Watch rubber gloves. Recent bird flu news in HK might bring about a new demand.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

If unable to buy BigMac why not try KFC?

Perhaps we have long thought of the wisdom in investing in sure-win stocks such as Microsoft. And the other M - McDonald's the burger company. BigMac - is synonymous with McDonald's worldwide. The BigMac we always have tasted one time or another. The BigMac index is used to calculate the cost of living comparisons. And Happy Meals. McDonald's branding is so powerful, the red and golden arches, the tagline "I'm Loving It" goes everywhere. Fact: Very high chance when travelling abroad in an unfamiliar country with exotic food - perhaps first time in Thailand - one will look for McDonald's Value Meal set. Actually, McDonald's Restaurant was "looking" at you. It's placed at strategic locations. Prime locations. Powerful ads.

How about a trip to Luxembourg or Hong Kong or London the first time for budget travellers? Yes you CANNOT afford a local 20 EUR meal. So you are likely looking for the Golden Arches. And it will be there to rescue you.

McDonald's is listed in US market and currently going for 80 USD. So alas, it seems to late to want to invest in this well-known sure-bet fast food company.

How about Kentucky Fried Chicken? KFC is listed in Malaysia and currently goes for 4RM (or less than $2.00 SGD)

Monday, November 22, 2010

Oil and gas - KNM gets momentum

Would you buy a stock with a potential to go 5 fold ups? Taking a historical approach, KNM is trading at 40 sen. The all time high is over $2.40 during the 2007 oil grab.

KNM Group Berhad is engaged in investment holding and the provision of management services. The Company and its subsidiaries are engaged in the designing and manufacturing of process equipment for the oil and gas, petrochemicals, minerals processing, desalination, renewable energy, environmental and power industries. Its products and services include process gas waste heat recovery systems, membrane technology systems, sour gas and sulfur technology, compression systems, fired and heat recovery boilers, quench coolers, scraped surface exchangers, process and pressure vessels, heat transfer equipment, storage facilities and others. Its direct subsidiaries are KNM Process Systems Sdn. Bhd., KNM International Sdn. Bhd., KNM Capital Sdn. Bhd., KNM Management Services Sdn. Bhd., KNM Renewable Energy Sdn. Bhd., KNM Capital Labuan Limited and KNM Services (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. In July 2009, the Company, through its wholly owned subsidiary, acquired Compart Technology GmbH & Co.
  Wright Quality Rating: CBA2

Historical chart wise, the price is at the bottom of an upside down bell curve.

KNM has just signed a new contract with Lukoil Uzbekistan. Total job wins exceed RM2 billion YTD.
Buy suggestions because:
1) Fundamentally KNM has been improving.
2) Inexpensive price - this is one of the methods of risk management.
3) Oil and gas going upwards again.
4) Last few laggards that haven't pick up much after this years double rally. Most top market capitalised companies have gained on average 40-50%.

Will be exploring other choice picks that seems to have been left out by investors and speculators. Finding the gems is a lifelong quest.

Still good chance to pickup stocks now

Best opportunity now to buy more with the recent market correction.
Some picks:
SPH - giving big dividend soon
Suntec - down from $1.55 to %1.54
Costco - $2.00 (all time high was over $8.00!) - oil and marine
Genting Singapore - $2.04 (from high of $2.35) 

Malaysia:
AirAsia - $2.30 from high of $2.65
KNM - 40 sen from 85 sen
YTLPower - good bet for new age 4G system. Low innovative tariffs and bundling - a very strong position to challenge not just internet service providers but also regular mobile companies. YTLPower owns YTL Communications which owns the 4G network called YES in Malaysia. $2.50 - Current price comes with dividend.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Buying in dips - AirAsia Genting Singapore Kossan Scomi KNM

Today's dips could be a chance to buy-and-accumulate before more funds are released and the imminent QE2 money coming into Malaysia and Singapore markets. Both these markets attained 20% gains this year compared to over 40% for Thailand and Indonesia. Therefore it is safe to suggest foreign funds will have a higher likelihood to invest in equities in Malaysia and Singapore.

Some choice picks:
Singapore - Genting Singapore (casino and integrated resort), China Oilfield, China Aviation Oil, (start to accumulate oil and gas related stocks), Golden Agri (palm oil), Ezra (oil and gas), SATS, SMRT (just given out dividend and prices pressed down).
Malaysia - AirAsia (low cost carrier), Kossan, Hartalega, Supermax (rubber industry, rubber gloves), Scomi, KNM (industrial engineering) both below 50 sens.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

What does breaking all time high suggests in SGX and Bursa?

Is breaking all time high in the index of Singapore and Malaysia a positive or a negative? A braking sign?

When does breaking constitutes and overly bought situation signalling a wrong valuation or wrong exuberance?

Mostly, whatever prices were before the 2008 GFC (Global Financial Crisis) has been attained. "Back to normal". So what is normal, and what does the future hold? The uncertainly of currencies especially USD may bring in more funds, meaning a bigger flow of money into equities and thus stock prices will generally increase. And those with strong fundamentals, will benefit.

US QE2 will not actually help their own economy simply because of that reason. The money released will flow out to better paying investments abroad. The investment could be merely currency. For instance, exchanging USD into Australian or New Zealand Dollars, and then parking there seeking term interests of over 5-6% minimum. And investing in commodities that are in demand - rubber, Malaysia or rubber equities will benefit. Palm oil. Minerals - Gold, Iron Ore, Australia will benefit.

The money released will not go much into the US economy. Simply because it is not consumption and what US is seeking is consumption by local (domestic) and thus trying to boost Gross Domestic Product value will not be achieved. These funds are managed and channelled in unit trust, trust funds, private banking investments - which are all based on very technical risk calculation models, by highly paid and highly intelligent financial analysts that have graduated from Harvard Business School and other top institutions - meaning they will seek out the best chance and best possible return. And not for the best of the nation as one might hope for. Eventually a higher return for the investor (US investor) is doing something best for the nation ironically - it is not going to be giving back or creating jobs in the US economy.

The natural or obvious solution thus is not shown from where the money is heading. Remember how the US dollar went up when the economy was choked by the housing foreclosure crisis? Which was caused by greed in "investing" in property priced out of one's means of paying. If you are not supposed to be eating dinner at a 5 star restaurant, then you are not supposed to because it cost you a week's salary. Yes, you may have that week's salary in your hands. And yes logically you can pay for a $300 dinner meal in the 5 star restaurant. But you should realise you cannot "afford" it. The end.

US system of trying to create jobs this way is actually going against what they have been trying to achieve for the last 50 years. Trying to go back into heavy industry, or making thousands of menial low paying jobs will not materialise. You cannot copy a cheap economy after you have attained a high paying economy. And because of rights and democracy and liberty, the working class unions will not be wanting to see a lower paying situation. That's also the problem with the media. Creating jobs is not just - here you have a task to perform in this car factory. Done. It is more than that.

The disparity between the illusion of attaining wealth and having a job is quite a dangerous way that the media has cooked up in mostly free-open market economy citizen's mind.

These two questions to connect the dots:
1) Have you travelled to a country (or if you never travelled abroad to another province or town) that will give you twice or even 5 times the value of your current cash? Meaning where $10 dollar can buy you a meal. Now $10 dollar can buy you 4 meals?

2) When you read jobs are being created in Asia, China, India, will you willingly swap your current job with a same folk there? Example you are a post-office clerk in Sweden. And many times I have met from travelling, the First World person will comment that it is so cheap in Asia. But you know it is expensive in Europe. So I suggested, ok why not you swap jobs and life with a similar person with similar job. Swap a post office job in Sweden with a post office job in Thailand.

That person will not be willing to accept this after considering many other things. Like health benefits. School. Medical. The power of the Swedish krone. At best, working in Thailand in the post office, he could perhaps have a holiday twice a year in the nearby beach or waterfall. While he knows the same Swedish job he has, can afford him a 5000 mile holiday at a 4 star resort in THAILANDE every year!

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Making same mistakes in Singtel and Noble Group

Here is a sharing about a repeat of my trade that resulted in a lower gains.
I bought Singtel at close to 3.15 and they went down to below 2.95 for a period of time that took some toll in my emotions. When it found the momentum to move above 3.20, I sold them - still at a profit - but prices were supposed to lead up to $3.50 (it eventually headed around $3.35). This was early this year.

Similar, I bought in again, and when it hit 3.16 earlier last week, I sold them. Only to see prices going over $3.34 now.

Noble Group: My target was to buy when it went below $2.00. And had bought at $1.87. Prices went to about $2.00, then sank back to $1.93. Went the next upward movement hovered around $1.98 I sold them, thinking it cannot break the $2.00 "barrier". Perhaps I was trying to think like a day trader, or TA. And forgo my original plan of a 6 months to 1 year holding period. Now Noble is over $.2.19.

SPH momentum $4.50 target price

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) price will get a boost from dividends announced (CD). Recommended Buy before XD.

Lithium is the next commodity to hold

My thoughts again regarding Lithium - buy. I guess the question many fellow readers are asking and wondering is how, where - since what, why, when - you have read from my writings.

Anyway to sum it all up: Lithium is used in your Nokia phone. The battery. It is also used in the battery of hybrid cars. Laptop computers and camera batteries all use lithium. To see the magnitude of potential demand let us examine the amount used for a mobile phone. Mobile phones are small, compact, lightweight and uses about 5 to 10 grams of Lithium. Now a hybrid car battery uses 6 kg. That is 1000 times more.

Here is a case study.
There are 100 000 new cars added to Singapore each year. Total cars on the road are about 500 000. If the government in the effort to go green, and create a gradual reduction in the reliance of petrol, it may want to support and promote hybrid and electric cars.

At the lowest estimate of 50% new cars being hybrid, that would use up = 50 000 cars x 6 kg Lithium = 300 tons of Lithium demand. Current worldwide production estimates are about 100 000 tons. That gives about 0.3% usage of worldwide production. Now supplant this demand for Lithium for hybrid cars into the passenger car markets of USA (12% from estimates of 40x population of Singapore). Then Europe who are normally environmentally conscious. Plus Japan itself the producers of hybrids - Toyota and Honda. Half of world supply will be used for just these economies. What about China, India, Brazil and Russia?

Soon, there would be an exponential growth for demand.

And this demand is definitely exponential or parabolic - have we forgotten oil prices in the middle of 2008? It sure drove many car people into taking public transport. It sure led to a frenzy to retrofit a CNG/LNG/LPG tank into passenger cars in Thailand, and Malaysia as far as I can remember. And that is even for net producers of petroleum. Today oil prices are hovering at $90 USD. Possibly will go upwards relative to the percentage the dollar is coming down with QE2 (Quantitative Easing 2).

Other factors that will fuel demand is innovation and technology. More consumer products require the storage of energy. Battery life. Electric bicycles. MP3 players. Movie players. Portable devices. Car ownership increases as economies around the world flourishes. Demand for electric public transport to reduce carbon footprint and pollution will boost an even higher demand for Lithium. If a small passenger car uses 1000 times Lithium than a mobile phone, what about a commuter bus?

Lithium stocks are listed mainly in NYSE and ASX (Australia). Australia apparently is not just a gold mine, coal mine and koala. It seems to be the lucky country to have other minerals and one of them in abundance is Lithium, plus also Rare Earth Elements (REE) which I will talk about in another posting.

Commodity Investing: Maximizing Returns Through Fundamental Analysis (Wiley Finance)

So here are the NYSE Lithium stocks:
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (SQM) capitalized at $13.4 billion is the world’s largest lithium producer. SQM produces 30,000 tonnes per year from massive Chilean brines located in the Atacama salt desert, where it has a number of other projects producing fertilizers and chemicals.
SQM is a Chilean producer of specialty plant nutrients and chemicals. The Company's activities are structured in four business units: Specialty Plant Nutrition (SPN), comprising the production of organic fertilizers and nutritional solutions under the Ultrasol, Qrop, Speedfol and Allganic brands; iodine extraction and the production of iodine derivates; lithium exploitation and production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and lithium metal, and Industrial Chemicals, including the production of such chemicals as sodium nitrate, potassium nitrate, boric acid and potassium chloride, among others. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the Company has operations established in South, Central and North America; Europe; North, Central and South America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Oceania. In addition, the Company's products are sold and distributed in more than 100 countries worldwide.
  Wright Quality Rating: BBA1

FMC - FMC Corporation (FMC) is a chemical company serving agricultural, consumer and industrial markets with solutions, applications and products. It operates in three business segments: Agricultural Products, Specialty Chemicals and Industrial Chemicals. Its Agricultural Products segment develops, markets and sells three classes of crop protection chemicals: insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides. Specialty Chemicals consists of BioPolymer and lithium businesses and focuses on food ingredients that are used to enhance texture, structure and physical stability, pharmaceutical additives for binding, encapsulation and disintegrant applications, ultrapure biopolymers for medical devices and lithium specialties for pharmaceutical synthesis, specialty polymers and energy storage. Its Industrial Chemicals segment manufactures a range of inorganic materials, including soda ash, hydrogen peroxide, specialty peroxygens and phosphorus chemicals.
  Wright Quality Rating: ABA1

And listed in ASX:
Orocobre Limited is an Australia-based mineral exploration company. The Company focuses on lithium, potash and boron resources in Argentina. The Company's projects include Salar de Olaroz Project, Santo Domingo Project and South American Salars Project. The Salar de Olaroz Project is located in the Puna region of Jujuy, approximately 230 kilometers northwest of the capital city of Jujuy. The Salar de Olaroz Project consists of 118 square kilometers of tenements over a salar (salt lake). The Santo Domingo Project is located in the San Juan Province. The South American Salars Project has approximately 60,000 hectares of tenements on 10 salars in the provinces of Salta, Jujuy and Catamarca. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2009 (fiscal 2009), the Company drilled 16 vertical cored holes (1136 meters) and six monitoring holes (360 meters).
  Wright Quality Rating: DBNN

Galaxy Resources Limited (Galaxy) is engaged in mineral exploration in Western Australia. The Company's principal activities consists of the development of the Mt Cattlin Spodumene Mine; development of the Jiangsu Lithium Carbonate Plant and exploration for minerals. Its subsidiaries include Galaxy Lithium Australia Limited and Galaxy Lithium International Limited.
  Wright Quality Rating: DBNN

AirAsia technical analysis from Technical Analysis Talk

Recently I made some requests to a fellow blogger who is from the "other side" - Technical Analysis. Often I like reading his analysis and charts, and sparkled by the beautiful lingo used such as symmetrical triangle, ten black candles, head and shoulders (not the shampoo) and MACD (not MacDonald's!)

First were the round-up of rubber stocks in response to the recent trend in commodities and flooding that may have potential effects on pricing and supply and thus value of shares related to rubber gloves and such.

And my final request was for AirAsia - my favourite stock that I had been holding for over 3 years - and sold earlier last month at $2.34. It was all of my holdings of AirAsia in one go.

I really like AirAsia and one of my strategy or motto is to buy stocks that I use personally. Being an avid traveller, AirAsia has been my number choice since 2003. I have clocked over 90 flights - one way calculations. Some flights I do a combo of one-way trips for instance. KUL-Hanoi. Then Hanoi to Bangkok. Then Bangkok back to KUL. This is a tremendous advantage AirAsia has over other "regular commercial" airlines. Normal airlines will want you to do a return trip for e.g. 800 RM for KUL-BKK AND must be completed in 2 weeks. And one-way fare you get "penalise" with a hefty fare of 600 RM. Meaning consumers are literally funnelled into buying two ways, and make their holiday plans around a duration set by the airline. Yes you can buy a one-year return ticket. Price - over 1200 RM. So this is one fact and also factor, that tilts to AirAsia and the consumer's favour. While normal airlines want to load up the return leg of the flight with the same passengers, AirAsia's gameplan is if you book early like 8 months ahead, then you get the lowest fares.

Back to why I sold. I have been holding the stock for over 3 years. And to realise the profit was the basic reason. While I have since bought back some of the lots that I sold for a "premium" of 15 sen - buying them back around $2.50. I still see positive upward signs coming. The horizon might be 2-3 years while the benefits and potentials are there. See my previous postings on AirAsia by clicking on the "AirAsia" label on the right panel bar.

So here is some nice technical analysis talk by Radhys on AirAsia: (thank you Radhys)
http://technicalanalysistalk.wordpress.com/2010/11/08/airasia/

Monday, November 8, 2010

Thomson Medical plus TMC Life equals super medical synergy

After buying up Thomson Medical, and now investing a bigger stake in TMC Life Science, seems to suggest that the medical-healthcare-biotech industry is the new target for the long-term investor Peter Lim.

Long horizon or in short, patience, is the system that Peter Lim uses. The time-line could be 3-5 years or more. Definitely only for those who are into long term investing. At 56 sen (approx 25 cents), I suppose it is a risk that any newbie, investor can partake. Say 10 lots just costing $2500. And just hold till the end.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Rubber Company - Missed out Hartalega

Missed out Hartalega in the Rubber Roundup write-up.
So here it is:
Hartalega Holdings Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company is engaged in the manufacture and sale of latex gloves. The Company's products include latex gloves and nitrile gloves. As of March 31, 2010, the Company's subsidiaries included Hartalega Sdn Bhd, Pharmatex (Australia) Pty Ltd, Pharmatex USA, Incorporated and Sentinel Engineering (M) Sdn Bhd. The Company's manufacturing facility is located in Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia.
  Wright Quality Rating: CANN $5.50 $572mil

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Oil and gas SGX roundup

) Cosco Corporation (Singapore) Limited is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company has ship repair, ship building and offshore marine engineering operations in China. The Company also operates in dry bulk shipping, shipping agency and other sectors. The Company has operations in ship repair, ship building and offshore marine engineering. During the year ended December 31, 2009, the Company completed the construction of 11 new vessels comprising eight bulk carriers, one heavy lift ship, one accommodation and work barge and one offshore driller.
  Wright Quality Rating: BCA1 $1.85 $2899mil

2) KS Energy Services Limited (KS Energy) is a Singapore-based energy services provider to the global oil and gas, marine and petrochemical industries. Its principal activities include trading in hydraulic products, instrumentation and equipment for the shipbuilding, marine and oil and gas industries, trading in hardware products and oilfield equipment, and investment holding. It operates in two segments: Distribution and others, which includes sales of hydraulic products, hardware products and tools and equipment and provision of design engineering, project management and fabrication of systems equipment for industrial applications to the marine and oil and gas industries, and Capital equipment and related services, which includes provision of capital equipment and related services to the oil and gas industry. During the year ended December 31, 2009, it acquired the remaining 50% interest in United Oilfield Services Pte. Ltd. and remaining 60% interest in Landrig 5 (BVI) Ltd.
  Wright Quality Rating: CBNN $1.04 $489mil

3) Ezra Holdings Limited (Ezra) is a Singapore-based company. The principal activities of the Company are those of investment holding and provision of management services. It is organized into three operating divisions: Offshore Support Services, which is engaged in the owning, chartering and the management of offshore support vessels serving the oil and gas industry; Marine Services, which is engaged in the provision of management services, supply of marine gas and oil, provision of engineering, design and fabrication works, and Energy Services, which is engaged in providing drilling and well intervention related works. In July 2009, it disposed 50% interest in United Oilfield Services Pte. Ltd. In September 2010, it incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, Lewek Crusader Shipping Pte. Ltd. In October 2010, the Company incorporated Emas Offshore Angola Pte. Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary in Singapore.
  Wright Quality Rating: CCB1 $1.75 $491mil

4) Swiber Holdings Limited (Swiber) is engaged in investment holding and provision of corporate services. It offers a range of offshore engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPIC) and marine support services to support the a range of offshore oil and gas exploration projects. Swiber consists of four business units: Swiber Offshore Construction Services, Kreuz Offshore Marine Services, Kreuz Offshore Subsea Services and Equatorial Offshore Development Services. Swiber Offshore Construction Services provides a suite of offshore construction services. Kreuz Offshore Marine Services offers a spread of offshore marine support services that are complementary to its offshore EPIC services. Kreuz Offshore Subsea Services provides commercial saturation and air diving services. Equatorial Offshore Development Services provides offshore wind farm engineering, transportation and installation services. In September 2010, it incorporated a subsidiary, SWIBER INTERNATIONAL PTE. LTD.
  Wright Quality Rating: CBNN $1.02 $570mil

Friday, November 5, 2010

Rubber Companies New Potential for 2011

Rubber is a commodity that has been revived earlier this year due to the H1N1 influenza saga. Prices of rubber gloves companies went over the roof earlier this year. Rubber gloves are not cyclical. In fact it is a slowly increasing industry as more and more people get health care and ageing, and requiring medical care, the demand of gloves increases over time. A spike comes when there is a calamity or panic in a communicable disease such as SARS. War time, there will be a demand too. So whichever way the world is moving ahead, population growth, wealth, ageing, better access to medical, it seems the rubber gloves industry will benefit.

Here is roundup of these companies mainly listed in Malaysia with Market Price at 29th October 2010 and 2009 Sales.
1) Supermax Current $4.50 $803mil
Supermax Corporation Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company operates in three segments: manufacturing of gloves; trading of gloves, and investment holding. It has nine factories that manufacture various types of latex gloves, which are exported to over 146 countries, including the United States, European Union, the Middle East, Asia and South Pacific countries. As of December 31, 2009, the Company's subsidiaries were Supermax Latex Products Sdn. Bhd., Supermax Glove Manufacturing Sdn. Bhd., Maxter Glove Manufacturing Sdn. Bhd., Supermax Incorporated, Spenser Glove Manufacturing Berhad, Supermax International Sdn. Bhd., Supermax Energy Sdn. Bhd., Seal Polymer Latex Products Sdn. Bhd. and SPI Gloves Sdn. Bhd.
  Wright Quality Rating: DBB2

2) Top Glove $5.50 $2079mil
Top Glove Corporation Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company providing management services. The Company's subsidiaries are engaged in the manufacture and trading of gloves; producing and selling latex concentrate, and property investment and trading of machinery. It operates in Malaysia, Thailand and People's Republic of China. The Company's subsidiaries include Top Glove Sdn. Bhd., TG Medical Sdn. Bhd., Great Glove Sdn. Bhd., Top Glove Engineering Sdn. Bhd. and TG Medical (U.S.A.) Inc. On March 25, 2010, the Company acquired Top Quality Glove Sdn. Bhd.
  Wright Quality Rating: CAA2

3) Kossan $3.12 $842mil
Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd. is a Malaysia-based company engaged in investment holding and manufacturing and sales of rubber products. The Company offers molded rubber products, extruded rubber products, engineered rubber products, colored ethylene propylene diene Monomer (EPDM), rollers, ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), polyurethane (PU) products and gloves. It has 49 production lines with an annual production capacity of 3.9 billion pieces of gloves. Its ultimate holding company is Kossan Holdings (M) Sdn. Bhd. As of December 31, 2009, the Company's direct subsidiaries were Kossan Latex Industries (M) Sdn. Bhd., Perusahaan Getah Asas Sdn. Bhd., Hibon Corporation Sdn. Bhd., Doshin Rubber Products (M) Sdn. Bhd., Ideal Quality Sdn. Bhd., Kossan Engineering (M) Sdn. Bhd. and Top Calibre Sdn. Bhd.
  Wright Quality Rating: CAA2

4) IRCB 47 sen $147mil
Integrated Rubber Corporation Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company operates in two business segments: manufacturing, which is engaged in the manufacturing and trading of latex gloves, and investment holding, which covers investment of ordinary and quoted shares. The activities of the Company are carried out solely in Malaysia. The United States, Canada, Japan and Europe are the major export markets for the manufacturing division, while the major market for the other divisions is principally in Malaysia. The Company's subsidiaries are Comfort Rubber Gloves Industries Sdn Bhd., PBT Sdn. Bhd. and Quality Gallant Sdn. Bhd.
  Wright Quality Rating: LCNN

5) Rubberex 87 sen $317mil
Rubberex Corporation (M) Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company is principally involved in the manufacturing and sale of household, industrial and disposable rubber gloves. The Company has two production facilities: China plant, which is located in Buluo, Huizhou City, Guangdong province, and Malaysia plant, which is located in Ipoh. Its China plant is for the production of reusable synthetic gloves and disposable vinyl gloves. It offers industrial gloves, consumer gloves, disposable gloves and condoms. During the year ended December 31, 2009, the Company acquired an additional 40% equity interest in Pioneer Vantage Limited, Lifestyle Investment (Hong Kong) Limited, LPL (Hui Zhou) Glove Co. Limited and Lifestyle Safety Products (Hui Zhou) Co. Limited, as well as an additional 20% equity interest in Rubberex (Hong Kong) Limited.
  Wright Quality Rating: LBC5

6) Adventa $2.41 $287mil
Adventa Berhad is a Malaysia-based company engaged in investment holding and the provision of management services to its subsidiaries. The Company's operations are divided into three segments: Healthcare Products, which is involved in the manufacture, distribution and trading of healthcare products; Energy Provider, which is involved in the generation and supply of energy and electricity using biomass technology, and Others, which include the provision of management services to its subsidiaries. It offers surgical and synthetic gloves. The Company distributes its products within Malaysia and to Hong Kong, Germany and Uruguay. During the fiscal year ended October 31, 2009, the Company acquired 100% equity interest in Cytotec (M) Sdn. Bhd. and had incorporated a new subsidiary in Malaysia under the name of Icodex Sdn. Bhd.
  Wright Quality Rating: DBD5

My picks are Kossan and Rubberex. The number 1 and 2 are Top Glove and Supermax which are still strong. While Kossan seems to have good sales. And Rubberex at a good position for volume with the current price tag.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Impact of Quantitative Easing 2 by US

Palsm are jittery because of the coming QE2 - Quantitative Easing 2 by the US government.

What sort of impact will 500bil USD have on the world economy, and especially your stocks and portfolio?

Firstly, we read about "priniting money" and that could mean an easing and reduction in value and exchange rate for the USD dollar AND those currencies that are pegged to it. Such as the Hong Kong Dollar. In a way, this will flood "money" into the market, and a case of money seeking money, will make stock prices increase, at least in those economies. Secondly, it may also increase the stock values of other economies. Why? The USD is deemed to be heading south, so to safeguard the value, fund managers will be seeking higher yield currencies such as the Australian Dollar. Forecasted to be on parity with USD.

This in turn would mean mining stocks in Australia will get another boost. First from the demands of mining commodities, then now with this new money.

Now it is best time to plan ahead. What are the possible impact on your current investments. If you hold US stocks, their price could rise, even though USD is coming downwards.

Another situation that is in perpetual check is foreign reserves of US currencies and debt. China being pressured to revalue the yuan is holding vast amounts of US debt. What if the pressure is too great, and the imminent downturn of USD may even push China to do what US wanted. But not just merely revaluing the currency. But firstly, to protect national interest, China will sell off all US debt, US stocks, US T-bills. Why revalue and then still holding a loss-making interest in US stocks, currency, debt? So that could happen too and I have not seen any analyst thinking of this action.

Perhaps it seems impossible. But nothing is impossible. If China just raises the yuan, China will lose double. This is perfectly logic. So be careful of what you (US) wish for!

Monday, November 1, 2010

Peter Lim A Wilmar and Golden Agri story

Most of you would have known this story - Peter Lim made his fortune investing in Wilmar many many years ago. Back then he invested when the company was at a low price, then now the price is over the moon. One factor was palm oil demand and prices went up through the years.

Wilmar along with Golden Agri, are listed in Singapore. While all their palm oil producing plantations are located in Indonesia. They are both the largest and second largest palm oil producers.

So now, if we are presented the scenario that Peter Lim had many years ago, when Wilmar was affordable. What would you do? With the knowledge that palm oil is heading upwards. And there is this second largest palm oil company being offered at a reasonably low price?

When I first invested in AirAsia, the similar situation hit. This airline is smashing records, over 75 destinations with over 183 routes, all over Asean and China and India, Australia. Recently it had gone from average of 1.50 RM, to over 2.50 RM in 4 months.

So I wonder if the day comes when Golden Agri had moved from 60 cents, to $1.00, to $5.00. What is the target price of Golden Agri? What was the target price of Wilmar? And that "was" was some time ago.

Similarly, what was the target price of Genting Singapore? Remember some powerful research house, or investment group were giving Genting Singapore $1.20 target price. 90 cents target price because of a Rights Issue. $1.25 target price and fear of estimating the gains. Fast forward to today, apparently the target priced has been revised upwards, conveniently.

My wish was to find such a Wilmar. And I had found it several times and several times too were swayed by wrong information, too much information, lack of confidence and believe in myself. So if you have found yours, believe in yourself and hopefully one day, you will know how Mr Peter Lim felt.

"When you first look at kungfu, it appears to be so easy.
When you are training in kungfu, it is very difficult.
When you have mastered kungfu, it appears to be so easy."

This was the legendary kungfu exponent Bruce Lee's philosophy about mastery. Which level of investment mastery are you at?

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Why AirAsia is unbeatable among budget airlines

In terms of hurdles, AirAsia has battled government protectionism and political efficiency better than David and Goliath, for the umpteenth time. Using old Subang Airport. Not allowed. New routes such as Sydney. Not allowed. Forced to use higher fee airport. Delays in LCCT. Singapore - KL route protectionist policy. Lucrative Japan and Korea routes - many many hurdles. Even battling oil prices on their own. SARS. Earthquakes and tsunami crisis in Indonesia. Political crises in Thailand.

Today, AirAsia's investors could be really proud. If you hold it that long. I held my shares over 3 years seeing it go from $1.70 down to $1.00 to 90 sen, then up, then down. And finally the last 3 - 4 months, a glorious rally back and over the top of $2.00 to a high of over $2.60. AND beating MAS (Malaysia Airlines) price as well to boot. I could see some parallel to Genting Singapore. Being beaten down to below 90 cents, then now riding over $2.00.

Are there budget airlines to challenge this supremacy? No. Tiger Airlines is plagued with bad service reputation on Australia and now in home turf Singapore as well. JetStar perhaps is powerful from Australia standpoint. It can never grow much further in Asia, where the numbers are. I actually enjoyed flying Jetstar and Virgin Blue in Australia. So I wish them the best too and hope they will operate in years to come. Imagine I had flights from Melbourne to Sydney for $50 AUD. The bus or train cost more plus travel time.

There is a relatively unknown player called Cebu Air. It is supposed to be the second largest budget carrier in Asia.

AirAsia has made very strong roots and foothold in essential markets across the continent. The biggest country in Asean - yes over 10 cities in Indonesia is connected. Big populous country in the world - China and India. The traditional trade partners of a land before airplanes circa the 15th century. Meeting in the middle port of Malacca. And today, the ancient trade routes is meeting centrally again, in KLIA (Kuala Lumpur International Airport) - or more aptly LCCT (Low Cost Carrier Terminal) Malaysia.

And remarkably, the host which is MAHB (Malaysia Airports Holding Berhad) wasn't so thankful to AirAsia for years. Even now. What an irony. Because if AirAsia, the historical price of MAHB had increased from $2.00 to over $4.00 doubling up in 2 years. Just like the middle-man report I wrote on SGX or in general the stock exchange firm, the middle man which is the airport will always gain when there are passengers coming in. When AirAsia introduces more and more flights. From more and more diverse Asian countries.

Practically the whole of ASEAN is connected now because of AirAsia. What a feat.

And looking at China and India - the limitless flow of passengers is a given now.

Rich Asian nations - Korea and Japan, Taiwan and Singapore all connected.

Powerful mining and closest Western First World Country - Australia with 3 destinations. What if Sydney is added? And northern small sized airports in Cairns and Darwin are added? Beautiful. Unbeatable.

Far reaching to smaller airports and boutique destinations, such as Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan.

The whole of Asia soon will have a little red dot connected. And this red dot is not Singapore. But AirAsia.

Friday, October 29, 2010

Australian Stocks Listed in SGX

Seeing the ASX-SGX merger being the talk of the two cities, here are some interesting facts. Currently, there are only 7 Australian companies listed in SGX:



1) AUSTRALAND PROPERTY GROUP
- Australand is one of Australia’s major diversified property groups, with activities across Australia covering development of residential land, housing and apartments, development of and investment in income producing commercial and industrial properties, and property management.
Australand was listed on Australian and Singapore Stock Exchanges in June 1997 and was formed into a stapled group in November 2003 with the stapling of units in Australand Property Trust to the ordinary shares in Australand Holdings Limited. In October 2005, Australand Property Trust No.4 and Australand Property Trust No.5 were merged with Australand. As a result of this merger, Australand has four listed entities (namely Australand Holdings Limited, Australand Property Trust, Australand Property Trust No.4 and Australand Property Trust No.5) whose securities are stapled together and trade on the Australian Stock Exchange and Singapore Stock Exchange as the one stapled security.

Australand has been involved in property development for approximately 80 years and Australand has progressively widened the scope of its activities to satisfy the needs of an ever changing and more sophisticated client base.

Australand has three operating divisions being Residential, Commercial and Industrial and Investment Property. It employs approximately 640 people with operations in Sydney, Melbourne, South East Queensland and Perth and a sales office in Hong Kong servicing the Asian market. Australand now has development assets of $1.7 billion and owns 49 income producing properties with an aggregate value of approximately $1.3 billion.

As at February 2006, Australand has approximately 12,700 security holders and a market capitalisation of approximately $1.8 billion. Its major security holder is the Singapore based property group, CapitaLand Limited, which owns approximately 53 percent of the issued capital.

2) AUTRON CORPORATION LIMITED

The Company is a listed public company limited by shares, which was incorporated under the Corporations Law of the Commonwealth of Australia on 10 January 1985 as Pacific Communications Holdings Limited. On 11 June 1998, the Company changed its name to Australasian Technology Corporation Limited and to its present name on 5 July 2000. The Company’s shares were listed on the ASX on 30 January 1986 and subsequently dual listed and traded on the SGX-ST on 3 May 2001.

The principal activities of the consolidated entity are as follows:-
- Assembly and manufacturing of printed circuit boards and electronics accessories;
- Design and manufacturing of industrial machinery and robotic and automated systems; and
- Investment in the potential of good commercially viable assets.


3) AVJENNINGS LIMITED
-In 1995, the Long Homes Ltd acquired AVJennings Hldgs Ltd and changed to its present name. It is a low-rise residential developer targeting second and subsequent home purchasers. The company is listed on the Melbourne and Singapore stock exchanges.

4) GLOBAL MASTERS FUND
-EBB-AFG Global Masters Fund is an Australian domiciled unit Trust. Its issued by EBB-AFG Capital Management Limited, a company registered in Hong Kong on 9 January 2007 as trustee of the Fund is a joint venture company between EBB and AFG and. The Units will not be tradable on the SGX-ST upon the listing of the Units on the SGX-ST.

The investment objective of the Fund is the generation of strong, risk-adjusted, absolute investment returns over the medium to long term and in all market conditions.
The investment strategy of the Fund is to initially obtain exposure to a Portfolio of international Absolute Return Funds managed by some of the world’s leading absolute return investment managers. This fund of funds approach enables the construction of a portfolio diversified by investment strategy, investment manager and geography.

5) MACARTHURCOOK PROP SEC FUND
- MacarthurCook Property Securities Fund is a diversified, listed property fund that invests in a range of listed property trusts, unlisted property trusts and listed property-related companies registered in Australia. It was listed on the Australian Stock Exchange since 17 December 2004, established with the aim of providing investors with a diversified property-based investment offering a stable level of income with the opportunity for long term capital growth.

The Fund is managed by MacarthurCook Fund Management Limited, a subsidiary of MacarthurCook Limited, a specialist international real estate investment manager.

As at 30 June 2006, the Fund had investments in over 46 funds managed by more than 27 specialist real estate investment managers with more than 1,200 underlying properties under management across office, retail and industrial sectors as well as “non-traditional” sectors like healthcare and childcare. Properties owned by the funds in which the Fund invests are located in Australia, the United States, Europe and New Zealand.

6) SP AUSNET
-SP AusNet is a stapled group comprising SP Australia Networks (Transmission) Ltd, SP Australia Networks (Distribution) Ltd and SP Australia Networks (Finance) Trust or SP Australia Networks (RE) Ltd (the Responsible Entity).

SP AusNet's business consists of an electricity transmission business and electricity and gas distribution businesses. These networks are all located in the state of Victoria where they provide for the supply of energy from producers to consumers. SP AusNet is 1 of 5 providers of electricity distribution services and 1 of 3 providers of gas distribution services.

7) UNITED OVERSEAS AUSTRALIA LTD
- The Company was incorporated in Australia on 17 June 1987 a public company under the name of United Overseas Securities Ltd. Listed on the “Second Board” of the Australian Securities Exchange Limited (ASX) since February 1988. The name of the Company was subsequently changed to United Overseas Australia Ltd on 12 December 1990. It successfully transferred its listing from the “Second Board” to the Main Board of the ASX in 1992.

United Overseas Australia Limited is a property developer and property investment company based predominantly in Kuala Lumpur and focuses on middle to high-end residential and commercial property development and investments in Kuala Lumpur.

The Group believes that its established track record in developing high quality residential and commercial property developments in prime locations within Kuala Lumpur have helped the Group builds brand loyalty in the “UOA” name. Its residential property developments are typically highvalue, multi-phased projects with a focus on the quality of workmanship, interior design and integrated landscaping to create an upmarket, desirable living environment aimed at attracting middle to high
income purchasers. Its residential property projects include fully-fitted villas and apartments. Its commercial property developments comprise mainly office buildings with retail space, for sale and lease. The Group is also co-operate and collaborate closely with Dats Management, which provides building management services for the projects its developed.

The Company’s business can be categorised into four principal activities:
(a) Property Development;
(b) Construction;
(c) Property Investments; and
(d) Building Management (carried out in close co-operation and collaboration with a company known as “Dats Management Sdn. Bhd.”).

Palm Oil Commodity Fight - Wilmar versus Golden Agri

Palm Oil or Crude Palm Oil (CPO) dominated the headings when oil prices were hovering over $150, as a potential alternative biofuel for vehicle usage.

And rightly so, I have been writing some articles on Lithium as a new bet for hybrid car demand. Hybrid car batteries need Lithium, and so this commodity will heat up soon.

So back to palm oil. Besides being a biofuel, the main usage is for cooking oil, basic daily consumption, making soap and many other fast moving consumer goods (FMCG). Now the toss up surely is to look at the largest palm oil producers or harvesters. Who are the players?

Wilmar is the largest, and the current price is over $7.00
Next is Golden Agri, and the current price is around 65 cents.

Both companies own large tracts of palm oil producing fields in Indonesia - Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi. Labour cost is relatively low.

Perhaps the big simple question of investing is to go for the number 1. Wilmar. My suggestion instead is to buy into Golden Agri - 10 lots of Golden Agri is equal to 1 lot of Wilmar. And when price fluctuates, the investor has an easier way to divest out of several lots instead of holding to 1 large costlier lot.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Effective tax 12 percent for Genting Singapore compared to over 39 percent in Macau

Singapore, with its two mega casinos, is unlikely to overtake Macau but may steal some "high-rollers" from China as operators shift premium business to the city-state where they face an effective tax rate of 12 per cent compared with about 39 per cent in the Chinese territory.

What this could translate is greater operating profit.
Say if there was a revenue of $1bil, after approximate after-tax profit would be 88% x 1bil = 880mil
While casinos operating in Macau will be left with just 61% x 1bil = 610mil

That 200mil saved could be used in many ways. Repaying the loan. Paying the salaries of the ten thousand employees, or a bonus to employee. Based on that number each average employee could get $1667 as a year end bonus. Why not?!

Learning from history Genting Berhad 2 year performance

The World Financial Crisis did rattle many stocks and Genting Berhad, mother stock of Genting Singapore, did experience a downturn during that period and also surprisingly another short period durng April 2009 when it was down to only MYR3.20. That translate to about SGD$1.42.

Within two years, Genting Berhad now is trading over MYR10.00 (SGD4.44) or a tremendous gain of 312%


Should this be an indicator of the trend that Genting Singapore could be heading? There are many analysis and predictions for the expected Target Price of Genting Singapore. So this take here is based on not only trend of the mother stock but also plain fundamentals.

Genting Berhad in the old days took 3 years to build the access road up to the mountain to start the building of the resort, hotel and casino. It was estimated to take over 10 years. Very impressive but still no revenue for those 3 years and another few years more to complete the buildings.

Now fast forward to Genting Singapore. The whole resort(apart from a few other sections) is completed and running and making profit in 3 years. And at current revenue estimates, the whole cost of the resort could be paid off in 3-5 years.

One of my earlier articles projected $2.50. My other article suggested about $4.00. So with this article, it is quite solid and possible the price could be in the range of  $2.50 to $4.00 in 2 years.

Comments and suggestions welcome.
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