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Friday, December 17, 2010

Vision 2020 Malaysia when everyone has left

Postulating theories and what-ifs is one superior trait human has over animals. Imagination. Yes Einstein said it. Is more important than knowledge. He virtually imagined out how the theory of relativity would worked. And then began to work on it on paper.

So here I am doing a different take on Vision 2020. The year whereby and supposedly all citizens of Malaysia will be truly equal, the country truly developed and everyone living in harmony, and unity.

It will start about 3-5 years before the year 2020. Just somewhat similar to 1997 for Hong Kong. Now, those who have the means and savings to migrate to developed nations like Australia, or being semi-recruited into Asean Scholarship System and thus have a golden path in Singapore had already begun the exodus.

There was a new policy by two giants of the world economy. China and India. After hearing the plight of people with Chinese descent having an unequal footing, China openly invites all who have the blood of the Middle Kingdom to be able to reside in the Mainland. Highly talented scientist, corporate figures, can even reside in bigger cities such as Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Those who have ancestries to their "hometown" can own property in their hometown where their forefathers came from. Such as Guangdong province (mainly Cantonese speakers), Shantou (Teochew), Hainan, and various other dialect "tribes".

A similar policy was also offered by India.

These two giants know how invaluable human capital is. China is too huge to have a system akin to Singapore, whereby inviting Europeans or Americans to live and work is possible. Diversity. While maintaining a political status quo. They studied urban civilisation, planning, for years to improve their policy. Not just economics and politics. Social, the environment, sustainability - looking forward to the next 100 years. Not merely 5 years as can be seen in Malaysia.

Property sold by the thousands. Stocks and market equity sold. Even savings or paper money, sold to buy renminbi. Stakes sold in companies.

The proper postulation would leave still a handful of people. But let's assume everyone has left.

1st of January year 2020, there are no more citizens of Chinese nor Indian descent remaining in Malaysia.

What next? What is happening next in 100% Bumiputera Malaysia?
1) For a start, now there is no more Bumiputera discount for properties - which ranged from 7% to 30% - basically property that is subsidised by the non-Bumi citizen. There seem to be no one rejoicing. Because the majority of the low and middle income Bumiputeras are still unable to purchase property whether there was a discount or not to start with. Only the rich elite can.

2) The government revenue drops sharply over the last 3 years. Revenue from the education, printing, business, trading, rubber, steel, alcohol, and the big gambling industry.

3) The policy of inviting Middle Eastern investors and residents is evident and unfortunately the new friction point. The whole prime shopping district in the middle of the city, is virtually owned by the newbies.

4) The policy of inviting immigrants from Indonesia and Singapore (to a lesser extent) of Malay descent and granting them automatic Bumiputera rights the past decade has eroded the actual citizens value. Be it property, creating a lower overall property class - or the richer ones - buying up all prime location while the Bumiputera discount was valid - has created a new chasm in (ah!) economic inequality again.

5) Education level hits extremely low level. Even manufacturing plants have to shut down - lacking skills both technical and managerial skills resulting in lower output, productivity and profitability.

6) Bumiputera equity increased from 30% to 100% of major firms, but lost 90% of their value when foreign investors started selling their shares the last 5 years. Growth and profitability keeps sinking.

7) Approved Permits are virtually useless and worthless - where once there were worth 35 000 RM each for automotive imports. Many of those AP holders had already left the country with their millions of wealth, living a life of luxury in London, Australia and Switzerland.

8) The business model of "Ali and Baba" goes into a downward spiral. "Ali" waits for "Ali". There is no more "Baba" to do the actual job. Contracts stagnant. Demand declines. Offices close. Random crimes increasing from lack of job, salary, and uncertainty.

There will be a clear eye opener for politics and alas, finally the lay Bumiputera person, can see why the policies are wrong all the way. There were never putera in the first place nor the current place. It was just but an illusion.

Here's a summary of the future by Patrick Teoh.

THE ABOVE POSTULATION may sound a bit harsh. It is after all, imagination from bits and pieces of daily struggle that many people encounters everyday that I came across in Malaysia. One Korean traveller asked why the monorail does not connect to the KL Central transportation hub whereby it is just another 200 metres away. Well now kindly use your imagination.

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