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Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Will 2011 be like 2001 with a Dot Com Bust?

1997 and 1998 saw the Asian Financial Crisis hitting all across Asia. USA was not affected much. But 2001 saw the so-called Dot Com Bust wiping out all under-performing and superficial tech stocks, and rocking big old players such as IBM, Microsoft, Yahoo to their knees. I recall Hotmail even reduced the mail quota to 1 MB and inactive account will be suspended. Nowadays we are seeing free email services giving 1 GB of mail quota.

The lingering question could be from what I wrote before about the "trendlines" - the ten-year bust. And if that is true for 1997/1998 parallel with 2007/2008, so will the 2001 Dot Com Bust be a parallel to the "yet-to-be-named" 2011 "Bust"?

Some people are panicky. Some are shrugging it off.

What sort of financial crisis, financial burnout, financial collapse is possible? And if based on facts like "if USA didn't suffer during 1998 and then had a 2001 bust, so perhaps those who didn't suffer that much for the 2008 Financial Crisis will be the possible candidate" to get a downturn. Could it be a country? A region? An industry?

Let us see: there seems to be a housing bubble in several Asian countries including Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, China. This is a possible candidate. Housing.

Commodities. Gold going way too high. Other minerals and mining companies being propped up excessively. Possible.

Will it be another Dot Com bust - will Facebook go bust, Apple goes bad, will Cisco routers be overtaken by Huawei?

Will another 9/11 hit somewhere unexpected? Strangely 9/11 did not have much of a financial impact on the global markets.

Recent flooding has ravaged various parts of Asia that were producing the staple food rice. How significant is this?

Will oil prices go above the roof again because of demand and because of the decline in USD? Possible.

In conclusion, there is a high possibility of something crashing somehow the next 1-2 years. It may not be as great as the Financial Crisis. But this interim crash is an opportunity. If you know how to spot this opportunity, and have enough resources to buy in when everything is at a bargain for a limited time, you can win it big.

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