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Monday, October 11, 2010

YTLe vs YTL Comms plus YTL Power prospects?

The weird corporate structure situation aside, the big question is can YTL Communications promise what they can achieve and be on par with Green Packet? And with the impending situation be: YTL Communications vs Green Packet or 4G (Wimax) vs all the other telcos? Will there be a consolidation and 4G will win?

Now with the impending launch, the expectations are mild. First, when Green Packet launched, it was with great fanfare. Then subsided because the incumbent telcos, Maxis, Digi, Celcom and monopoly TM boosted more packaging and repackaging of internet and voice. TM was even given the national broadband monopoly (again). Streamyx service did pick up and became more stable. What a surprise? Why wasn't that so for 10 years?

 Green Packet was like caught with a torrent of competition from established players and then were consumed with the pent up demand.

So for now, Wimax players have been pushed to the back. Telcos and 3G players will dominate for now.

YTL did say they are preparing very well and testing to make sure they are no hiccups. And they did promise big. They will have voice service. Meaning they will directly challenge voice operators. Just as what they are doing with internet on HSPA and Edge and 3G. What can we think of the fight?

Firstly, telcos will finally be able to forgo their internet exorbitant fees (10 sen per 10 KB is crazy). To compare apples to apples, we won't be looking at Singapore. Instead look at Thailand. Internet on mobile phone by DTAC (Happy DTAC) is based on usage time. So you subscribe 5 hours for 50 Baht (5 RM or 10 Baht per hour). It is on Edge. So on the phone we will be say checking briefly Facebook or Gmail. That takes just 30 seconds or 1 minute. And thus when you disconnect, that is all you used. Even if there was a 200 K photo displayed, you just merely used 1 minute. And surely nowadays, photos are everywhere. For basic usage and replying Facebook and Gmail it may cost just that or 100 Baht per month usage on the phone. This is reasonable pricing. Users can choose to be power users or not. And power users can subscribe to unlimited packages.

In a country of inefficiencies, will finally Wimax be pushed away as what happened with Time Telecommunications, the biggest fibre optics ever laid in Malaysia and a disaster of sorts of wastage?

Or will Wimax players triumph, and thus the end of 3G and regular telco?

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